USDA improved global oilseed balances for the current and next seasons, which continues to put pressure on quotes

In the June report, USDA FAS experts made only minor changes to the world oilseed balance for the 2026/27 MY, but increased the estimate of the soybean harvest in the current season, which increases pressure on world quotes.

The forecast for global oilseed production in the 2025/26 MY has been increased by 2.15 million tons to 700.65 million tons. The main reason was the increase in the estimate of the soybean harvest in Argentina by 2 million tons to 50 million tons. At the same time, the Rosario stock exchange has already increased its own forecast to 51.5 million tons, which may indicate a further increase in carryover stocks at the beginning of the new season.

The forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 MY has also been revised upwards by 0.1 million tons to a record 718.2 million tons. For comparison, in 2025/26 MY production is estimated at 700.65 million tons, in 2024/25 MY — 686.65 million tons, and in 2023/24 MY — 657.5 million tons.

The growth was primarily driven by an increase in the forecast for sunflower production by 0.3 million tons to 62.06 million tons, while the soybean harvest estimate was reduced by 0.2 million tons to 441.34 million tons.

The forecast for global oilseed processing in 2026/27 MY has been increased by 0.1 million tons to 606.74 million tons compared to 587.5 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 568.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY, and 543.74 million tons in 2023/24 MY.

World ending stocks of oilseeds in 2026/27 MY increased by 0.26 million tons to 146.99 million tons. For comparison, in 2025/26 MY they are estimated at 146.57 million tons, in 2024/25 MY — 144.4 million tons, and in 2023/24 MY — 136.1 million tons.

Following the report, July soybean futures in Chicago fell 0.7% to $409.7/t, down 10% from the May report. Meanwhile, November contracts are trading $7/t higher than July contracts.

The forecast for global sunflower production has been increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.06 million tons, compared to 55.25 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 53 million tons in 2024/25 MY.

In particular, the production forecast for the Russian Federation has been increased by 0.3 million tons to 19.5 million tons, compared to 17.5 million tons and 16.9 million tons in the previous two seasons. The forecast for Ukraine has been left unchanged at 13.5 million tons, compared to 11 million tons and 13 million tons in previous years.

On the Ukrainian market, sunflower prices have stabilized at UAH 32,500–33,000/t delivered to the plant at 50% oil content, which is UAH 500–1,000/t higher than a month ago. At the same time, the main factor behind the growth was the weakening of the hryvnia, while export prices for sunflower oil remain stable at $1,320–1,330/t delivered to the port.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY was left unchanged - 96.9 million tons compared to 95.57 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 86.25 million tons in 2024/25 MY.

For Ukraine, the USDA lowered its forecast for rapeseed exports in the 2025/26 MY by 0.2 million tons to 2.1 million tons due to increased domestic processing.

On the exchange, August rapeseed futures in Paris rose 1.2% in the month to €528.5/t or $616.5/t, while July canola futures in Winnipeg rose 1.5% to CAD765/t or $547/t.

At the same time, a sharp decline in Brent crude oil prices by 17.5% in one month to $88.5/barrel continues to put pressure on oilseed markets. If oil quotes continue to remain below the psychological level of $90/barrel, this could be a factor in the market reversal and limit further growth in oilseed prices.