USDA raises global wheat production and ending stocks forecasts for 2025/26 MY

In the September supply and demand report, USDA experts sharply increased their forecasts for global wheat production, consumption, and ending stocks for the 2025/26 MY, which will continue to pressure prices in the near term.

Despite the improvement in the global balance, December wheat futures even rose slightly after the report was released:

• by 0.5% to $192.4/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.7% since the release of the August report);
• by 0.9% to $189.1/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+0.7%);
• by 0.01% to $210.5/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-0.8%);
• by 0.1% to €188.75/t or $222.7/t – for wheat on Euronext in Paris (-2.1%).

Compared to August estimates, the world wheat balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for world wheat production has been increased by 9.3 million tons to a record 816.2 (800.9 in 2024/25 MY) million tons, in particular for Australia - by 3.5 million tons to 34.5 (34.1) million tons according to the ABARES forecast, for the EU - by 1.9 million tons to 140.1 (122.1) million tons, the Russian Federation - by 1.5 million tons to 85 (81.6) million tons due to increased production of both winter and spring wheat, for Canada - by 1 million tons to 36 (36) million tons, Ukraine - by 1 million tons to 23 (23.4) million tons and Kazakhstan - by 0.5 million tons to 16 (18.6) million tons.
• The forecast for global consumption is increased by 5 million tonnes to 814.5 (809.14) million tonnes due to higher use of feed and residues in the EU, Australia, Canada, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as well as a slow increase in food and seed consumption for several countries.
• The forecast for world exports has been increased by 1.2 million tons to 214.7 (209.6) million tons, in particular for Australia – by 2 million tons and the USA – by 0.7 million tons, which more than compensates for the reduction for the Russian Federation by 1 million tons to 45 (43) million tons and Ukraine – by 0.5 million tons to 15 (15.75) million tons due to low export rates at the beginning of the season.
• The global import forecast has been increased by 1.1 million tons to 210.56 (199.4) million tons, but it is worth noting that for the EU, the import forecast has been reduced by 1 million tons to 5.5 million tons compared to 10.6 million tons in the 2024/25 MY, which will reduce the potential for wheat supplies from Ukraine.
• The forecast for ending wheat stocks has been increased by 4 million tons to 264.1 (262.4) million tons, mainly due to increased stocks in several exporting countries.

A sharp improvement in wheat production forecasts amid a record global corn harvest will put significant pressure on wheat prices in the coming months.