USDA Raises Soybean Production Forecast, But Lowers FY 2024/25 Canola Crop Forecast

In the December supply and demand report, USDA experts raised the forecast for world production of oilseeds in FY 2024/25 by 1.16 to 683.38 million tons (657.49 million tons in FY 2023/24), including soybeans by 1.74 million tons and cotton - by 0.5 million tons, which compensates for the decrease in rapeseed production by 1.06 million tons.

Compared to the November estimates, the new soybean balance for the 2024/25 MR has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was reduced by 0.26 to 112.16 million tons (101 million tons in FY 2023/24).
• The global production forecast was increased by 1.74 to 427.14 million tons (394.87 million tons in 2023/24 FY and 378.4 million tons in 2022/23 FY), in particular for Argentina - by 1 to 52 (48.2 ) million tons For Brazil, the estimate has so far been left at 169 million tons, although local agencies have already raised their forecasts to 170-172 million tons.
• The estimate of world consumption was increased by 1.36 to 403.64 (384) million tons, in particular for Argentina – by 1 to 48.6 million tons.
• The global export forecast was increased by 0.28 to 181.97 (177.47) million tons.
• The estimate of world final reserves was increased by 0.13 to 131.87 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure (112.16 million tons) by 17.5%.

According to the report, January soybean futures in Chicago rose by 0.5% to $365.5/t (-2.2% compared to the data after the release of the November report).

The forecast of global rapeseed production in 2024/25 MY was reduced by 1.06 to 86.18 (89.9) million tons, in particular for Canada – by 1.2 to 18.8 (18.85) million tons, while the Canadian Bureau statistics lowered the harvest estimate from 18.98 to 17.8 million tons. The export forecast for Ukraine was increased by 0.15 to 3.37 million tons and decreased for Canada by 0.6 to 6.75 million tons due to a decrease in the import forecast for China by 0.4 to 3 million tons. The estimate of global final reserves was reduced by 0.85 to 7.194 (10.1) million tons.

According to the report, February canola futures on the Paris MATIF rose 0.7% to €536.5/t or $564.3/t (unchanged on the month), while canola on the Winnipeg exchange rose 0. 4% to CAD 622/t or $438/t (-6.9% for the month).

The forecast of world sunflower production in 2024/25 was increased by 0.07 to 50.512 (56.03) million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation by 0.3 to 16.3 (17.1) million tons and unexpectedly for Ukraine by 0.4 to 12.9 (15.5) million tons, while for the EU the estimate was reduced by 0.65 to 8.78 (10.13) million tons. For Argentina, the estimate was left unchanged at the level of 4 (3.9) million tons. The forecast of world sunflower consumption was increased by 0.1 to 51.313 (56.67) million tons, and the estimate of ending stocks was reduced by 0.01 to 2.27 (3.2) million tons.

In the near future, oilseeds markets will depend on the data on the harvest of canola in Australia, as well as the forecast of the soybean harvest in South America.