USDA raised its forecast for US corn production by 26 million tons, which greatly improved the global balance for 2025/26 MY, causing quotes to fall by 3.6-3.8%
The USDA's August report came as a big surprise for the corn market, especially the American one, as experts sharply increased the forecast not only for yield, but also for the area sown in the US, as a result of which the estimate of US production was increased by 26 million tons, although analysts expected an increase of 7 million tons.
The USDA raised its forecast for U.S. corn yields from 181 to 188.8 bushels/acre (11.79 t/ha), while analysts had expected an increase to 184.3 bushels/acre on average. At the same time, the USDA unexpectedly raised its forecast for U.S. corn plantings from 95.2 to 97.3 million acres, up 6.7 million acres from last season, which was an additional surprise for analysts, as the final crop report on June 30 and later did not mention a possible increase in acreage.
As a result, the forecast for the US corn harvest for 2025/26 MY was increased by 26.33 million tons to a record 425.26 million tons, which will exceed last year's harvest by 47.63 million tons. The consumption forecast for the US was increased by 8.77 to 332.25 (318.28) million tons, and the export forecast - by 5.08 to 73.05 (71.63) million tons. The estimate of ending stocks in the US was increased by 11.6 to 53.77 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 20 million tons.
Changes in the corn balance for 2025/26 MY, million tons:
|
Indicator |
August 2025 |
July 2025 |
Difference |
Comment |
|
Beginning stocks |
284.18 |
283.11 |
-1.07 |
reduction for China and the USA by 1 million tons each due to increased consumption |
|
World production |
1263.66 |
1288.58 |
+24.92 |
|
|
World consumption |
1275.76 |
1289.15 |
+13.39 |
|
|
World exports |
195.81 |
200.86 |
+5.05 |
increased corn exports to the US and Ukraine, but decreased to Serbia and the EU |
|
World imports |
187.76 |
192.16 |
+4.40 |
increases for Mexico, EU, Egypt, Colombia and Turkey, but decreases for Canada |
|
Ending stocks |
272.08 |
282.54 |
+10.46 |
|
Falling corn prices should help increase consumption, but it is unknown whether farmers will be willing to lower prices further or simply postpone sales until a later period, waiting for crop forecasts to be adjusted after the harvest is complete.
It is worth noting that if global consumption is indeed as large as the USDA predicts, this will lead to a decrease in ending stocks and an increase in prices under the influence of any crop correction.
