USDA raises global oilseed production forecast, particularly rapeseed, but quotes are rising

In the September world oilseed balance for 2025/26 MY, FAS USDA experts increased the forecast for world oilseed production compared to August estimates by 1.44 million tons to 691.55 million tons, which will still exceed the previous season's figure of 682.07 million tons by 9.48 million tons (657.45 million tons in 2023/24 MY).

 

The forecast for global rapeseed production has been increased by 1.4 million tons due to increased production in Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Moldova, sunflower - by 0.17 million tons against the background of increased production in the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, which compensates for its reduction in Ukraine and the EU, cotton - by 0.35 million tons, while the forecast for soybean production has been reduced by 0.52 million tons.

 

According to the USDA forecast, global oilseed processing in 2025/26 MY will decrease by 0.56 million tons to 579.95 (563) million tons due to a reduction in soybean processing.

 

The forecast for world ending oilseed stocks has been increased by 0.65 million tons to 145 (143.08) million tons due to an increase in rapeseed stocks in Canada.

 

The forecast for world rapeseed production in 2025/26 MY has been increased by 1.38 million tons to 90.96 (85.7) million tons, in particular for Canada - by 0.75 million tons to 20 (19.25) million tons, Australia - by 0.3 million tons to 6.4 (6.1) million tons, the Russian Federation - to 5.5 million tons and Moldova - to 0.33 million tons. At the same time, the production forecast for Ukraine has been reduced by 0.2 million tons to 3.3 million tons (which corresponds to official harvest data). The forecast for rapeseed exports from Ukraine has been reduced by 0.2 million tons to 2.75 million tons, and from Canada - by 0.9 million tons to 6.7 million tons due to the suspension of exports to China.

 

The EU production forecast is left at 19.65 million tons (+2.8 million tons compared to the previous season), and the import forecast is at 5.7 million tons, although imports were increased to 7.9 million tons last season.

 

November canola futures rose 1.4% on Friday to 640 CAD/t or 462 $/t (+3.7% for the week and -1.6% for the month), followed by rapeseed quotes on the Paris stock exchange, which rose 1.4% to 473 €/t or 555 $/t (+2.5% for the week and +1.4% for the month).

 

The forecast for global soybean production has been reduced by 0.5 million tons to 425.87 (424.2) million tons due to a decrease in production in India by 0.9 million tons, as well as in the EU and Serbia, which is partially offset by an increase in production in the Russian Federation by 0.5 million tons and in the USA by 0.2 million tons.

 

The forecast for global soybean processing has been reduced by 1.1 million tons to 366.6 (354.5) million tons, in particular for India, Argentina, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and Canada, which is partially offset by increased processing in the USA, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine.

 

Soybean exports in 2025/26 MY will increase due to increased supplies from Argentina, the Russian Federation and Canada, offset by reduced exports from the US and Ukraine. Imports will increase for Turkey, Brazil, Egypt, the EU and Serbia.

 

World ending soybean stocks will decrease by 0.9 million tons to 124.0 million tons due to decreases in stocks in Argentina, Bolivia and Canada, partially offset by increases in stocks in the United States and Brazil.

 

It is also worth noting that the forecast for soybean production in Ukraine was left at a record level of 7.6 million tons (7 million tons last season).

 

November soybean futures in Chicago rose 1.2% to $384.4/t after the report was released (+1.3% for the month).

 

The forecast for world sunflower production has been increased by 0.17 million tons to 55.27 (52.43) million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation - by 1 million tons to 19 (16.9) million tons and for Kazakhstan - by 0.6 to 2.4 (1.8) million tons, which compensates for the decrease in the forecast for Ukraine by 0.8 million tons to 12.7 (13) million tons and the EU - by 0.65 million tons to 8.85 (8.5) million tons.

 

Sunflower prices in Ukraine are gradually falling after reaching highs at the start of the season, and now stand at 26,500-27,500 UAH/t with delivery to the factory at an oil content of 50%.