USDA raises global soybean stock forecast, will continue to pressure prices
The USDA's June report raised its estimate of global soybean beginning and ending stocks , keeping the market under pressure in the near term. The balance for 2024/25 MY is almost unchanged, but the following changes have occurred for 2025/26 MY:
Main indicators of the soybean balance for the 2025/26 MY (compared to May):
|
Indicator |
June |
May |
Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Beginning stocks |
124.2 |
123.2 |
+1.02 million tons due to stocks in China |
|
Production |
426.8 |
426.8 |
No change, but a record is expected in Brazil (175 million tons) |
|
World consumption |
424.15 |
424.05 |
+0.1 million tons, China: 133 million tons |
|
Export |
188.43 |
188.43 |
No changes |
|
Imports |
186.86 |
186.86 |
China imports 112 million tons (60%) |
|
Ending stocks |
125.33 |
124.2 |
+1 million tons |
Market reaction:
- July futures in Chicago : $383/t (–0.8% per day, –2.8% from May)
- November futures : $377.5/t (–0.2%, –2.9%)
What to expect next:
- The USDA has not yet changed its harvest estimate for Brazil (169 million tons) and Argentina (49 million tons) for the 2024/25 MY.
- However, local analysts (CONAB, Buenos Aires Grain Exchange) expect higher yields , which may lead to a revision of the forecast in July - this will increase pressure on global quotes.
Despite strong demand, excess inventory and a potential record harvest in Brazil could push soybean prices lower further. Traders should watch for the USDA's July adjustments.
