USDA raised US corn production forecast to record high, but lowered EU harvest and world ending stocks estimates, sending prices higher

The USDA's September report again came as a surprise to the US corn market due to another increase in the US crop forecast, although analysts expected it to be reduced due to the low yield observed during the crop tours.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in a report lowered the forecasted US corn yield from 188.8 to 186.7 bushels/acre (11.71 t/ha), but increased the forecasted area to harvest by 1.3 million acres to 90 (82.9 in 2024) million acres (compared to analysts' expectations of 88.7 million acres), which would be the largest figure since 1933, while the sown area is estimated at 98.7 (90.6) million acres, which is the maximum since 1936.

The forecast for US corn production in the 2025/26 MY has been increased by 1.85 million tons to a record 427.11 million tons, which will exceed the previous season's figure by 49.5 million tons!

The consumption forecast for the US was left at 332.25 (317.4) million tons, and the export forecast was increased by 2.5 to 75.6 (71.9) million tons.

Despite record supply and rising inventories, December corn futures in Chicago rose 2.4% to $169.3/t after the report and are trading 8% higher than a month ago but 4.7% lower than last year.

The world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for opening stocks has been increased by 1 million tons to 284.18 (315.5 in 2024/25 MY) million tons due to an increase in the estimate of the corn harvest in Brazil in 2024/25 MY by 3 million tons to 135 (119) million tons, although local analysts already estimate the harvest at 138-139 million tons.
• The forecast for world corn production has been reduced by 2 million tons to a record 1,286.58 (1,228.9) million tons due to a sharp decrease in estimates for the EU by 2.7 million tons to 55.3 (59.3) million tons, the Russian Federation by 0.9 million tons to 14.1 (14) million tons, as well as for Serbia and Moldova, which is offset by an increase in production in the USA by 1.85 million tons, as well as in India, Zambia and Canada.
• The forecast for global consumption was left at a high level of 1,289.36 (1,260.3) million tons, but it is worth considering that the forecast for global wheat production was also increased by 10 million tons, so consumption may decrease.
• The forecast for world corn exports has been increased by 0.85 million tons to 201.7 (193.8) million tons due to an increase in exports to the USA by 2.5 million tons, which more than compensates for the reduction in the Russian Federation by 0.6 million tons, the EU by 0.7 million tons, as well as in Serbia and Tanzania.
• The forecast for world corn imports has been increased by 1 million tons to 193.2 (183) million tons, in particular for the EU - by 1 million tons to 23 (20) million tons, as well as for Malawi and Zimbabwe, but reduced for India.
• The forecast for ending corn stocks has been reduced by 1.14 million tonnes to 281.4 (284.18) million tonnes, mainly due to a decrease in both beginning and ending corn stocks in China.

The production forecast for Ukraine was left at 32 (26.8) million tons, and exports at 25.5 (20.6) million tons.

Corn prices are supported by increasing global consumption and decreasing global stocks, so any downward adjustments to crop forecasts could lead to severe market shocks.