USDA slightly adjusted the world wheat balance for 2025/26 MY, so quotes remained almost unchanged

USDA experts made very little change to the February balance of supply and demand for wheat, so stock market quotes did not change yesterday, and only winter wheat in the US rose in price by 3.3% in a month due to speculation about the impact of frost on crops.

Compared to January estimates, the world wheat balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for world wheat production has been reduced by 0.37 million tons to 841.8 million tons (800.81 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for Argentina - by 0.3 million tons to 27.8 (18.51) million tons, which partially compensates for the decrease in production in Turkey and Mongolia.
• The forecast for global wheat consumption has been increased by 0.15 million tons to 824.06 (810.86) million tons due to increased consumption for feed.
• The forecast for world exports has been increased by 2.2 million tonnes to 221.96 (210.47) million tonnes, in particular for Argentina – by 2 million tonnes to 18 (13) million tonnes, and Canada – by 1 million tonnes to 29 (29.3) million tonnes, which compensates for the reduction in exports from the EU by 1 million tonnes to 31.5 (27.9) million tonnes due to low shipment rates. It should be noted that, according to the European Commission, from July 1 to February 8, the EU exported only 13.43 million tonnes of soft wheat, so it will be difficult to export another 18 million tonnes over the next 5 months of the season. Export forecasts for Ukraine and the Russian Federation have not changed, although export rates there are also lower than last year.
• The forecast for world imports has been increased by 2.2 million tons to 217.73 (200.3) million tons, in particular for the EU - by 0.5 million tons to 6 (10.6) million tons, as well as for Bangladesh and Southeast Asian countries.
• The forecast for ending stocks is reduced by 0.74 million tonnes to 277.51 (259.77) million tonnes, mainly due to a decrease in stocks in Argentina by 1.7 million tonnes and Canada, although the estimate for the EU is increased by 1.4 million tonnes.

After the report was released, March wheat futures were unchanged, but overall they rose in price over the month:

• by 3.3% to $194.1/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago;
• by 0.9% to $194.9/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City;
• by 0.3% to $208.8/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis;
• by 0.1% to €189.5/t or $225.6/t - for wheat on Euronext in Paris.

Wheat quotes will remain under pressure from significant unsold supply and fairly good wintering conditions for winter crops in major exporting countries, so prices will decline with the onset of spring.