The USDA almost did not change the forecast of world sunflower production, although 1.3 million hectares have not yet been threshed in the Russian Federation

In the January report, USDA experts almost did not change the sunflower balance, although Russian agencies report that more than 1.3 million hectares of crops remained unthreshed due to autumn rains in the country.

USDA experts increased the forecast for the sunflower harvest in Argentina in 2022/23 MY by 0.4 million t to 4.6 million t (4.05 million t in 2021/22 MY) thanks to an increase in the area sown by 0.2 million ha to 2, 2 million hectares, and, accordingly, the estimation of sunflower processing by 0.2 million tons to 3.8 million tons.

According to the BAGE exchange, as of January 5, sunflowers in Argentina were harvested on 9.7% of the area, and 13% of crops were in good or excellent condition, compared to 36% last year.

For Ukraine, the sunflower production forecast was left at the level of 10 (17.5) million tons, and exports at the level of 2.45 (1.62) million tons, while the processing forecast was increased by 0.5 million tons to 9.5 million tons The estimate of transitional reserves in FY 2022/23 was reduced by 0.5 million t to 2.15 million t compared to 4.69 million t in FY 2021/22 and 0.141 million t in FY 2020/21.

For the Russian Federation, the sunflower production forecast was left at 16.5 (15.6) million tons, although according to Rosstat data, 15.3 million tons were harvested at the end of December. 1 million ha remain unthreshed in the Volga region and 0.3 million ha in the central regions . Even if it is possible to thresh them in the spring, the quality of the seeds will not meet the requirements.

In Ukraine, sunflower purchase prices during January remain at the level of UAH 16,000-17,000/t or $437-470/t with delivery to the factory (+7-11% for the month). During this period, the price of sunflower in the Russian Federation increased by 14%, primarily as a result of a 15% drop in the ruble exchange rate.

The global balance of vegetable oils for the 2022/23 financial year almost did not change, although the global production forecast was increased by 0.07 million tons to 217.62 million tons, which will exceed the 208.71 million tons of the 2021/22 season by 4.3%. In particular, the sunflower oil production forecast was increased to 20.355 million tons, which will exceed the 19.84 million tons of the 2021/22 season by 2.6%.

According to the Trading Economics platform, pressured by lower palm and soybean oil quotations, asking prices for sunflower oil delivered to buyers in January fell to $1,200/t CIF, although they reached $1,350/t CIF in early December.

The Turkish agency TMO last week purchased 24,000 tons of sunflower oil at a tender for delivery on February 20 - March 20 at a price of $1,218.8-$1,228.2/t CFR, which is 7% higher than the purchase price at the previous auction at the end of December.