The USDA lowered its soybean production forecasts in Brazil more significantly than analysts expected

Usually, the US Department of Agriculture adjusts the data more cautiously in its estimates, but in the January supply and demand balance, USDA experts lowered the forecast for soybean production in Brazil by 5 million tons at once to 139 million tons, although the average expectations of analysts were 141.62 million tons, and local agencies Conab 140.5 million tons and Abiove 140 million tons, which increases pressure on the prices of soybeans and other oilseeds.

The forecast for global oilseed production in my 2021/22 was sharply lowered by 8.41 million tons to 619.17 million tons (603.75 million tons in my 2020/21) due to falling soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, despite an increase in rapeseed production in India and soybeans in the United States.

The forecast for global oilseed exports in my 2021/22 was lowered by 1.6 million tons to 194.4 million tons (190.97 million tons in my 2020/21).

The forecast for global final reserves was lowered by 6.81 million tons to 107.32 million tons, which is 6% lower compared to last season due to a drop in rapeseed and soybean reserves.

The soybean balance for my 2021/22 has changed significantly compared to December:

- initial inventory forecast increased by 0.07 million tons to 99.88 million tons;

– production estimates were lowered by 9.22 million tons to 372.56 million tons (366.23 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 339 million tons in 2019/20 MG), including for Brazil-by 5 million tons to 139 million tons (138 million tons), Argentina-by 3 million tons to 46.5 million tons (46.2 million tons), Paraguay-by 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million tons (9.9 million tons), but increased for the US 0.3 million tons to 120.71 million tons (114.75 million tons);

- the consumption forecast was lowered by 2.1 million tons to 374.93 million tons (363.05 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to reduced processing volumes in Argentina and Brazil.

The forecast for soybean exports was lowered by 1.6 million tons to 170.74 million tons, including 0.5 million tons for Argentina to 4.85 million tons (5.19 million tons), and for Brazil it was left unchanged at 94 million tons (81.65 million tons).

 The forecast for Chinese imports remained the same at 100 million tons, compared with 99.76 million tons in 2020/21, despite forecasts of a reduction in the consumption of feed crops by Pork Producers.

The estimate of Final reserves was lowered by 6.8 million tons to 95.2 million tons due to lower reserves in Brazil and Argentina, which is 4.68 million tons lower than in the previous season.

March soybean futures on Chicago SWOT rose slightly yesterday to 5 511/ton, up 10% from the previous month's level.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in my 2021/22 was increased by 0.93 million tons to 69.285 million tons (73.2 million tons in my 2020/21) due to an increase in crop estimates in Australia and the EU.

The forecast for global sunflower production in my 2021/22 was increased by 0.2 million tons to 57.257 million tons (49.3 million tons in my 2020/21) due to an increase in EU crop estimates by 0.25 million tons to 10.4 million tons.

For Ukraine, Russia and Argentina, sunflower production was left unchanged.

The acceleration of soybean harvesting in Brazil, as well as precipitation in Argentina, will cool the market slightly, but quotes will continue to remain at a high level until the end of harvesting in South America.