Ukrainian corn continues to fall in price

For 126 days now, Ukraine has been heroically resisting Russia's aggression, which, failing to seize power and territory, began firing rockets at the city and infrastructure, including export terminals, like a terrorist. Prospects for unblocking Black Sea ports are not visible, Turkey's negotiations with the UN and Russia are still futile, so Ukraine exports its products only through the western borders and small ports on the Danube.

Improving logistics of deliveries by new routes allowed to intensify exports. Since the beginning of the military aggression, 4.717 million tons of corn have been shipped to world markets, including 1.092 million tons of corn in June 29, and a total of 23.4 million tons exported in the 2021/22 season, according to the USDA forecast of 23 million tons.

Significant supply and intensification of corn supplies to neighboring countries have brought down demand and prices for Ukrainian corn to $ 200-220 / t DAP - the western border, although demand prices in Romanian ports remain high at $ 280-300 / t, and in the ports of the Baltics - 320-330 $ / t. At the crossing stations there were long queues of cars, downtime lasting up to 30-50 days, and the cost of road transport from Ukraine to the ports of Romania and the Baltics increased to 120-140 $ / t. This increased the pressure on corn prices, which fell to $ 190-210 / t for deliveries to Danube ports as barley began to be harvested in the south and feed grain increased.

As a result of improved weather conditions in the Black Sea region during the week, July futures for Black Sea corn fell by 2% to $ 339.5 / t, and November - by 2.9% to $ 328 / t.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, July corn futures traded at $ 303.1 / t during the week, while December futures fell 7% to $ 257.4 / t amid improved crops.

At Euronext in Paris, November corn futures for the week fell 5.7% to € 304.5 / t or $ 318.3 / t due to increased supplies from Ukraine and improved weather in western Europe after the heat in May and June.

In 2021/22, the EU MR already imported 16.2 million tons of corn, which is higher than the previous season (15 million tons) and in line with the USDA forecast (16 million tons).

The heat in Brazil is accelerating the harvesting of second-harvest corn, which has already threshed 36% of the area in the main state-producer Mato Grosso. Local analysts have raised the harvest forecast to 116.1 million tons, which is in line with the USDA forecast.

Today, the market expects a quarterly report on crops and stocks in the United States, which will significantly affect world price trends.