Ukraine Has Already Exported 5.14 Million Tons of Sunflower Oil in the 2023/24 Season

According to the updated assessment by IA "APK-Inform," in May 2023/24 MY, Ukraine exported 714 thousand tons of sunflower oil (+14% compared to April), which became the highest monthly volume since January 2021. Overall, in the history of exporting this product from the country, this is the third-largest monthly shipment volume.

In total, from September to May 2023/24 MY, Ukraine exported a record 5.14 million tons of oil for this period, with a USDA forecast of 5.8 million tons for the entire season and production of about 6.3 million tons.

One of the main factors contributing to the active export of the product this season was the high demand for sunflower oil due to its competitive cost compared to other vegetable oils.

Given the nearly record processing rates of sunflower in the 2023/24 season and the lower oilseed harvest in 2023, the stocks of this crop at the beginning of June, according to APK-Inform, are at a multi-year low. Therefore, in June-August 2023/24 MY, a reduction in processing and, consequently, the supply of sunflower oil is expected, not only from Ukraine but also from the Black Sea region as a whole.

It should be noted that the key market for Ukrainian products this season remains the EU countries with a share of 60% (40% in the previous season). Exports of vegetable oil in this direction increased by 81%. At the same time, for the European Union, Ukraine is the main supplier of sunflower oil with a share of 93% compared to 89% in the previous season (according to the European Commission).

Export prices for sunflower oil with delivery to Black Sea ports have risen again to levels of $900-910/t due to significant demand, and demand prices with delivery to Poland remained at about $920-930/t, while with delivery to Bulgaria they rose to $920-930/t.

According to Trading Economics, since the beginning of the week, the average price of sunflower oil with delivery to buyers increased by 1.5% to $934/t, adding 9.2% over the month.

The increase in rapeseed oil supply in the EU market will slightly cool the demand for Ukrainian sunflower oil from the EU, while the decrease in palm oil prices will shift India's purchases in favor of cheaper palm oil.