Ukraine failed to exhaust the EU wheat import quota in 2025 — ASAP Agri

According to the European Commission, in 2025, Ukraine was unable to fully use the EU quota for wheat imports of 758.3 thousand tons, and 232.5 thousand tons remained unsold. This is confirmed by Ukrainian statistics, according to which during June-December 2025, Ukraine exported about 534 thousand tons of wheat to the EU. This was stated by the head of editorial content and analytics at ASAP Agri Viktoriya Blazhko in a comment to Latifundist.com .

 

The quota was restored on June 6, 2025 at 583.3 thousand tons until the end of the year, and at the end of October it was increased to 758.3 thousand tons as part of a revision of the annual limit from 1 to 1.3 million tons.

 

During June-December 2025, supplies of Ukrainian wheat to all EU countries decreased sharply, in particular to Spain — from almost 2.6 million tons to about 275 thousand tons, to Italy — from 415 to 170 thousand tons, while shipments to other European countries were limited and mostly episodic.

 

 

Historical data shows that the volume of Ukrainian wheat exports to the EU is directly determined by the level of the tariff quota. In 2016–2020, when the annual quota was about 1 million tons, actual imports from Ukraine approximately corresponded to this level. When the quota restrictions were abolished in 2022–2024, imports increased to 3–6 million tons per year. The return of the quota in 2025 again significantly limited annual exports, Blazhko noted.

 

At the same time, 2025 was an exception even within this logic: actual exports to the EU were not only limited by the quota, but also failed to fully select it. This indicates that tariff restrictions were not the only constraining factor.

 

In the second half of 2025, the pace of Ukrainian wheat imports to the EU was also restrained by high domestic supply within the EU. According to the European Commission, actual EU soft wheat production in 2025 reached 134.4 million tonnes, the second highest level in the entire history of observations, so the need for imports decreased significantly.

 

"This season, the EU is covering demand mainly with wheat of French and Baltic origin. Due to the decrease in the EU's export competitiveness in third-country markets, grain volumes are being reoriented to the domestic market. Under such conditions, the Ukrainian quota in 2026 (1.3 million tons — ed.) will most likely be used for the 2026/27 harvest," said Manuel Alcaraz, CEO of Cereales y Harinas Garsan, SL, one of the leading Spanish companies in the field of marketing grains, flour and oilseeds, in an exclusive comment to ASAP Agri.

 

ASAP Agri notes that under these conditions, the prospects for Ukrainian wheat on the European market in the 2025/26 MY will be extremely limited. This means that in the second half of the season, Ukraine needs to strengthen its presence in alternative markets, primarily in North Africa, where demand remains stable.

 

At the same time, competition from Russian wheat will continue to be strong, especially given the high grain export quota of 20 million tons, set for the period from February 15 to June 30, 2026.