Ukraine can reduce grain exports by 16 million tons in the 2024/25 financial year - UZA believes

Experts of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) lowered the forecast for the harvest of grain and oil crops in Ukraine in 2024 by another 2.8 million tons to 71.8 million tons, the press service of the association reports.

The correction of the forecast is caused by hot and dry weather in July, which negatively affected the yield of late crops.

Against the background of a decrease in the harvest forecast, the estimate of the export of grain and oil crops in 2024/25 was also reduced by 2.5 million tons to 41 million tons, which will be 16 million tons less than the previous season.

Compared to the previous season, production is expected to decrease:

• wheat - from 22 to 19.8 million tons, and exports will amount to 13 million tons (taking into account almost 1 million tons of temporary stocks),
• barley - from 5.8 to 4.95 million tons, and exports will decrease from 2.5 to 2 million tons,
• of corn - from 29.6 to 23.4 million tons, and exports will decrease from 29.3 to 18.5 million tons,
• sunflower - from 14.2 to 12.8 million tons, while export will amount to 250 thousand tons, and processing will decrease from 13.5 to 12.5 million tons,
• rapeseed - from 4.5 to 4.3 million tons, and exports will decrease from 3.7 to 3.4 million tons.
• soybeans - from 4.9 to 4.8 million tons, although exports will increase from 3 to 3.5 million tons.

Despite the increase in soybean sowing area, the harvest forecast was reduced by 0.7 million tons compared to previous estimates, as unfavorable weather had a negative impact on productivity.