Ukraine reduced sunflower oil exports by 24% due to high raw material prices and low oil prices
In the 2024/25 MY (as of March 1), Ukraine reduced its sunflower oil exports compared to the same period last season by 24% to 2.4 million tons, which was the lowest figure for this period since the 2016/17 MY.
The main buyers of Ukrainian oil remained EU countries, accounting for 54% of total exports. For the first time in the last three seasons, India became the leader among importers of domestic sunflower oil, purchasing 417 thousand tons, which is five times higher than the figure for the same period last season.
In February, sunflower oil exports decreased by 14% compared to January to 325 thousand tons, which is the lowest figure for this month in the last 10 years.
Overall, oil exports remain weak, as Ukrainian refiners cannot secure raw material supplies for stable operation for several months, leading to a drop in refining margins to zero or even negative values amid sharp price fluctuations.
During the week, demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine decreased by $5-10/t to $1,110-1,115/t with delivery to Black Sea ports against the backdrop of falling prices for palm and soybean oil and a collapse in oil quotes.
At the same time, processors keep purchase prices for sunflower with an oil content of 50% at a high level of 26,500-27,500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, hoping for a recovery in oil prices in the second half of the season.
The new US Administration continues to destabilize global trade. Experts are already talking about a recession in the US economy, which has led to a further decline in oil prices to $70/barrel (-7.9% per month).
On Friday, April palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange rose 3.2% to a 2-week high of 4,625 ringgit/t or $1,044/t in anticipation of a report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), which will be released on March 10 and may confirm a decline in oil stocks in the country.
May soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell another 1.6% to $956/t (-6.5% for the month) over the week, and started Monday with a new decline.
The start of the sunflower harvest and increased sunflower oil supply from Argentina in the coming months could fill the needs of importers, especially India, limiting the potential for price increases in the near term. In addition, the USDA is due to update its global balance sheets this week, which could lower estimates of global vegetable oil demand and increase stock forecasts.
