Ukraine has sharply reduced exports of agricultural products to Poland, but the border blockade continues

Polish farmers continue to block the import of agricultural products from Ukraine under the pretext of protecting the domestic market. Agricensus looked into the situation in more detail.

The blockade of Black Sea ports after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 forced exporters to look for new export routes. Deliveries of agricultural products through Poland, Romania, Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia were established.

However, after statements by farmers of neighboring countries about unfair competition from cheap Ukrainian grain, the five eastern EU states, led by Poland, in January 2023 called on the EU to stop importing grain from Ukraine, and later introduced unilateral import bans, violating the rules of the EU single market .

On May 2, the European Commission agreed to temporarily (until June 5) limit the import of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower from Ukraine to these countries, allowing transit through their territory. Then the ban was extended until September, when the EU began to harvest its own harvest.

The Polish authorities still prohibit the import and transit of Ukrainian products and demand better control over them, expressing dissatisfaction with the licensing system that should solve the problem.

After EU ambassadors agreed to continue duty-free deliveries of Ukrainian agricultural products, Polish farmers began blocking some border crossing points in November to reduce the amount of grain offered in the country.

However, the analysis of supplies shows that the volume of imports to Poland is insignificant and does not exceed the pre-war level. Thus, in 2022/23 MR Ukraine exported 2.7 million tons of grain across the Polish border, but by March 2023, the volume of deliveries amounted to 447.5 thousand tons per month, in April - only 66.2 thousand tons, in June, after the introduction bans - only 600 tons. In 2023/24 MR, the export of grain from Ukraine to Poland amounted to only 46 thousand tons, or 6,571 thousand tons per month. Given that most of this grain was transiting to other countries, the volumes that remained in Poland were significantly smaller compared to its own production.

In 2022, the volume of transit grain from Ukraine amounted to 11% of the 24.8 million tons collected in Poland, and in 2023 - only 0.002% of the collected 23.4 million tons.

After the opening of the Black Sea Corridor, the share of maritime exports of Ukraine increased to 70%, while railway and automobile exports fell to 20%. Most of the land routes go not through Poland, but through Romania, which earns from the transit of Ukrainian grain.

If in 2022/23 MR Ukraine exported 47.8 thousand tons of sunflower, then in 2023/24 MR - 0 tons.

The export of rapeseed in 2022/23 MR increased to 768.4 thousand tons, which was 21% of the harvested crop in Poland, but in 2023/24 MR it decreased to 5.4 thousand tons or 770 tons/month. While the rape crop in Poland has been growing for 4 years in a row and reached 3.7 million tons in 2023/24 MR. At the same time, in 2022/23 MR the export of rapeseed from Poland to Germany increased compared to the previous season by 44% to 468,142 thousand tons, and from Ukraine to Germany halved to 449,126 thousand tons.

The export of vegetable oils and meal from Ukraine in 2023/24 MR also grew, but this trend began before February 2022. Thus, the export of rapeseed oil in 2022/23 MR amounted to 42.4 thousand tons, and in 2023/24 MR -159 6 thousand tons, and the export of meal - 646.4 thousand tons and 372.2 thousand tons, respectively.