Ukraine cannot yet take advantage of high corn prices in the EU and Turkey, and in the new season prices will remain under pressure from port blockades

The halt in seaborne grain exports from Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in stock market quotes and a drop in domestic corn prices in Ukraine. And while demand for the new crop remains high, buyers are increasingly skeptical that exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports will fully resume by the end of the year.

Export demand prices for feed corn delivered to Danube ports remain at the level of 8500-9000 UAH/t or 175-180 $/t, but the main demand is concentrated on deliveries to the western borders of Ukraine, where demand prices are 180 €/t or 205-208 $/t loaded onto a Eurowagon in August-September, which is equivalent to 190-194 $/t DAP. This supports domestic prices for corn at the elevators of the western regions at a high level of 7500-7800 UAH/t.

At the same time, prices for new crop corn are declared at 190 €/t for loading into a Eurocar in November - December, which is equivalent to 235-240 €/t with delivery to the buyer in the EU.

It should be noted that Argentine and American corn is offered at a price of $280-290/t or €240-245/t CIF Italy or Spain for delivery in August-September, so European buyers have sufficient supply to cover the deficit.

November corn futures on the Euronext Paris exchange fell by 0.3% to €246.5/t or $282/t over the past 7 days (-4.5% in two weeks, +3% in the month) amid profit-taking after a sharp rise, as well as pressure from falling oil prices.

Another heat wave that hit western and eastern Europe this week will continue to worsen the condition of corn crops and reduce the harvest potential in the EU, which European analysts estimate at 51-52 million tons (compared to 56.8 million tons last year), and the USDA at 53.8 million tons, so a significant decrease in quotes should not be expected in the near future, as demand will begin to grow in August.

ANEC predicts that Brazil will increase corn exports in August compared to July from 1.94 to 4.08 million tons, increasing supplies to the EU.

December corn futures in Chicago have decreased by 1.3% to $181.9/t over the past 7 days (-5.6% in two weeks, unchanged in the month) against the backdrop of favorable weather conditions in the US and increased harvest forecasts.

Analytical company StoneX has raised its forecast for the US corn harvest in 2026 to 410.5 million tons (compared to 432 million tons last year), which exceeds the USDA forecast of 406 million tons.

According to ASAP Agri, domestic corn prices on the Turkish stock exchange rose sharply by $32/t to $302/t in July due to supply shortages, reduced supplies from Ukraine, and the end of the import quota with a reduced duty.

In Turkey, the 5% import quota for 3 million tons of corn, which was used to supply 2.73 million tons of corn, expired on July 31, and the duty is now back at 130%. Due to the heat, the country's corn production forecast has been lowered to 6-6.5 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 7.1 million tons, but the authorities are likely to maintain the corn duty to support domestic producers, especially against the backdrop of a good wheat and barley harvest in the country.