In its first forecast for 2026, COCERAL expects a decrease in grain harvests in Europe

In the first forecast for 2026, COCERAL experts estimated the production of grains and oilseeds in the EU and the UK at 296.7 million tons compared to 306.6 million tons in 2025. Recall that COCERAL represents the interests of traders in grains, oilseeds, rice, legumes, vegetable fats and oils, in particular olive oil, feed and agricultural products.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is forecast to decline from 147.5 million tonnes in 2025 to 143.9 million tonnes, although recent rainfall has replenished moisture reserves, which should support crop development in many regions of the EU. Wheat areas will be higher than last year, but yields will be lower than the record 2025 levels.

Barley production will also decrease from 63.2 to 58.2 million tons due to reduced yields, with the largest declines in Spain (after a record 2025) and the UK, where the area sown will decrease.

The corn harvest will be better than in the dry 2025, growing from 57.1 to 58.9 million tons. Sown areas will decrease by 15%, especially in the Balkans and France, as farmers will prefer other crops, including soybeans and sunflowers.

Rapeseed production will be 21.8 million tons, which will correspond to the level of 2025, as the decrease in yield to average indicators compensates for the increase in sowing areas from 6.4 to 6.8 million hectares, caused by high rapeseed prices in August-September during the sowing period.

In Ireland, the outlook for the 2026 crop remains optimistic. Most winter crops were well under way by Christmas, although late crops were affected by excessive rain. If the weather remains dry in February, farmers will start sowing beans, while feed barley will be the most popular crop in the spring due to uncertainty in the malting barley and oats markets.