Soybean exports from Brazil will increase sharply in February, which will lead to a decrease in demand for US soybeans
Brazil significantly increased soybean exports in the first weeks of February. The volume of deliveries has increased by 3.5 times, and now the country is ready to send up to 8-9 million tons of product per month. This is happening in conditions when the entire world export of soybeans for January amounted to about 10 million tons.
In the first two weeks of February this year, soybean exports from Brazil reached 1.3 million tons, which is 362.2% higher than the same figure for the 2nd week of January. However, in January of this year, Brazil exported only 840 thousand tons of soybeans, which is significantly lower than the results of December 2022 (1.94 million tons) and last year in the same period (2.45 million tons), due to the delay in harvesting soybeans in due to weather conditions.
Experts note that the amount of exported soybeans from Brazil in the current month may reach 8-9 million tons in accordance with the planned line-up of vessels. However, the actual volumes depend on the speed of crop harvesting in the country.
According to Oil World, world exports of soybeans from leading exporters fell to 10.15 million tons in January, compared to 11.6 million tons in the previous month. The United States continues to be the largest supplier of soybeans to the world market. In particular, in January, the US exported 8.4 million tons of soybeans, which corresponds to the previous month (8.3 million tons), but is significantly higher than the result for January 2022 (6.4 million tons). This was facilitated by high demand from China.
In January, Argentina did not export soybeans, and Paraguay cut shipments to 20,000 tons compared to 40,000 tons in December. The export of soybeans from Canada also decreased to 480 (910) thousand tons. Experts note that Ukraine is increasing soybean exports, shipping 0.4 million tons of oil products in January compared to 0.36 million tons in December (0.14 million tons in January 2022). The main volumes were supplied to the EU and Turkey.
Competition between the United States and Brazil for the supply of soybeans to China will begin to intensify, especially against the background of the low rate of soybean exports from the United States. According to the USDA, soybean exports since the beginning of the season on February 9 amounted to 39.54 million tons, which is 1.6% more than a year ago, with an export forecast of 54.16 million tons against 58.7 million tons last season.
NOPA experts reported that 4.94 million tons of soybeans were processed in the United States in January 2023, which is 2.3% more than in December 2022 (4.83 million tons). However, this number is almost in line with January 2022, when 4.96 million tonnes of soybeans were processed, suggesting that domestic soybean processing remains at last year's level.
In addition, the stocks of soybean oil in the USA as of January 2023 increased by 6.4% per month to 812 thousand tons, which is 5.9% less than in January 2022. This could indicate a decrease in demand for soybean oil in the US or an increase in its production, which in turn could affect the prices of soybean oil and other soybean products.
