In March, the export of sunflower oil from Ukraine amounted to 524,000 tons, which is the largest volume during the war

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Ukraine exported 3.2 million tons of sunflower oil in 2022/23 of the USDA forecast for this season of 4 million tons, in particular in March - 524 thousand tons, which was 29% higher than in February (118 thousand tons) and became the largest monthly volume of exports since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Export of sunflower oil from Ukraine in 2022/23 MR ShareUA potential predicts at the level of 4.5 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 4 million tons. In order to reach such indicators, during April - August 2023, it is necessary to export another 1.3 million tons tons of oil or 260,000 tons per month.

Given the sharp drop in world prices, the export of sunflower oil from Ukraine will decrease in the following months compared to March, but forecasts of 4 and 4.5 million tons look quite realistic.

The export of sunflower seeds in March increased by 34,000 tons to 199,000 tons compared to February, primarily due to uncertainty regarding the extension of the grain agreement, which was formally supposed to end on March 19. Another reason was the low competition between processors, which made it profitable to export seeds, even despite the current restrictions.

In 2022/23, Ukraine has already exported 1.8 million tons of sunflower, out of the 2.65 million tons predicted by the USDA and 2-2.5 million tons by local analysts.

Since sunflower oil exports have already reached 80% of the USDA forecast, while sunflower exports are only 68%, processors still have a chance to increase processing volumes and prevent raw materials from being exported to neighboring Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary for processing.

In the Russian Federation, thanks to a good harvest of oil crops, the export of vegetable oils increased sharply compared to last year, in particular, rapeseed oil - by 43%, soybean oil - by 45%, sunflower oil - by 18%. Turkey and China became the main buyers of Russian oil, which increased the volume of purchases by 62%. In addition, against the background of blocking supplies from Ukraine, the Russian Federation increased oil exports to India, Iran and Egypt, which is a confirmation of the economic war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.

Sunflower prices in the Russian Federation decreased by 25% in March (-37% for the year), due to which the question arose of temporarily canceling the export duty on sunflower, which will allow to intensify its export and collapse the prices on the markets of Turkey and Bulgaria.