In 2026/27, USDA forecasts the second largest global corn production, so quotes remain almost unchanged

In the May report, USDA experts improved the world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY and presented the first harvest forecast for the 2026/27 MY, which became quite optimistic for the market. However, corn quotes increased slightly, supported by a sharp increase in wheat prices.

July corn futures in Chicago rose 1% yesterday to $189/t (+8.1% since the April report and +2% year-to-date), while December futures are trading $8.6/t higher.

Compared to April estimates, the world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for initial reserves has been reduced by 1.48 million tons to 297.8 (313.98 in 2024/25 MY) million tons.
• The global production forecast has been sharply increased by 11.6 million tonnes to 1,312.68 (1,232) million tonnes, in particular due to a long-awaited increase in the estimate for Argentina by 7 million tonnes to 59 (49 in 2024/25) million tonnes and Brazil by 3 million tonnes to 135 (136) million tonnes, although local analysts estimate harvests at 61 and 140 million tonnes respectively.
• The forecast for world consumption has been increased by 8 million tons to 1,310.5 (1,251.26) million tons, the forecast for world imports has been increased by 2.46 million tons to 195.86 (186.2) million tons, and the forecast for world exports has been increased by 6.3 million tons to 213.6 (187.3) million tons.
• The forecast for ending stocks was increased by 2.15 million tons to 296.95 (294.8) million tons.

The first forecast for the world corn harvest for the 2026/27 MY turned out to be quite optimistic, despite the reduction in the US harvest, but increased consumption will reduce ending stocks, which will support prices.

Global corn production in the 2026/27 MY is forecast to decline to 1.295 billion tonnes, 17.3 million tonnes below the previous season’s harvest but the second-highest on record. Compared to last year, production will decline in the US by 26 million tonnes to 406.3 million tonnes, Argentina by 4 million tonnes to 55 million tonnes, South Africa by 1.2 million tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes, Mexico by 1.1 million tonnes to 24.6 million tonnes, Ukraine by 0.9 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes, and Turkey. This is partly offset by increases in production in China by 5.7 million tonnes to 307 million tonnes, Brazil by 4 million tonnes to 139 million tonnes, Serbia, Kenya and the Russian Federation.

Global consumption is forecast to increase by 4.3 million tonnes to a record 1,314.8 million tonnes, with consumption exceeding production by 19.4 million tonnes after a slight surplus last year. The largest absolute increases in consumption are forecast for China, Brazil, Vietnam, India and Mexico.

Global corn imports are expected to increase by 2.74 million tons to 198.6 million tons, while global exports are expected to decrease by 6.7 million tons to 206.9 million tons.

Ending corn stocks in 2026/27 MY are forecast at 277.54 million tons, 19.4 million tons below the 2025/26 MY level and the lowest since 2013/14 MY. Ending corn stocks will decrease in the main exporting countries: the USA, Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and will decrease slightly in all other countries.

Recall that in May 2025, the USDA forecasted world corn production at 1.265 billion tons, and then raised the forecast throughout the season due to very favorable weather conditions in the USA and a record harvest. This season, the US corn planting rate is higher than last year, and the weather is conducive to crop development, and the reduction in spring wheat areas due to the late spring will lead to an increase in corn and soybean areas, which may also change the global corn balance later.