In the 2026/27 MY, Mexico sharply reduced corn imports from the US, restoring its own production.

According to USDA, as of October 22, corn export sales from the United States to Mexico amounted to 9.023 million tons, which is 3.7 million tons or 31% lower than the corresponding figure of the previous season, which became a record due to high buyer activity.

The US Food and Agriculture Organization also announced on November 2 a new export agreement to supply Mexico with 1.135 million tons of corn in the 2026/27 MY, which could reduce the gap from last year's supply pace. However, traders believe that Mexico will continue to reduce grain imports from the US as its own production resumes.

According to the forecast of the GCMA consulting group, in 2026, corn production in Mexico will increase by 100 thousand tons compared to last year to 23.5 million tons, and consumption will reach 48.2 million tons, which will exceed its own harvest by 24.7 million tons, so the country will have to import the difference.

The main corn-growing regions are in the north of the country, while consumers in the south and southeast of Mexico are heavily dependent on imported supplies.

Brazil is stepping up competition with the US in the global corn market. According to Platts, as of November 2, prices for US corn for January delivery were $221.26/t FOB Gulf, while prices for Brazilian corn as of October 30 were $6/t cheaper and offered at $215.24/t FOB Santos.

In addition, Mexican importers note that Brazilian corn has better quality, including a lower proportion of broken kernels.

Despite the reduction in purchases, Mexico will remain a large importer of corn as it needs to cover the difference between production and consumption. However, the recovery in production and competition among suppliers will affect import demand throughout the season.