Australia could have a good grain harvest in 2025/26

According to the USDA FAS report, Australia could see good harvests of winter crops, including wheat and barley, in the 2025/26 MY.

 

In New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, weather conditions are conducive to the formation of wheat and barley crops, while in South Australia and western Victoria, dry weather is increasing soil moisture deficits, so it is desirable that rains pass in these regions by the end of June.

 

FAS experts predict that wheat and barley production in the new season will decrease, although it will exceed the seven-year 10-year average. Thus, compared to the previous year, wheat production will decrease from 34.1 to 31 million tons (27.6 million tons on average for 10 years), and barley - from 13.3 to 12.5 million tons, which will exceed the 10-year average by 6%.

 

Due to the reduction in production in the 2025/26 MY, wheat exports will decrease by 3 million tons compared to the previous season to 23 million tons, and its consumption will increase by 100 thousand tons to 8.1 million tons due to increased demand from feed producers. At the same time, the production of poultry feed increases mainly, while the consumption of feed for pigs and sheep remains insignificant and has almost no impact on the demand for wheat.

 

The volume of wheat processing into flour remains relatively stable, although population growth to 27 million may increase it, leading to new investments in flour milling capacity.

 

Australia is the world's largest barley exporter, but in 2025/26 MY it will reduce its supplies by 500 thousand tonnes compared to the previous season to 6.5 million tonnes due to reduced production. Barley consumption will increase to 6.1 million tonnes due to increased demand for livestock feed, especially among beef producers.

 

Australia exports mainly feed barley to China, but some of it is used in malting, FAS notes. In addition, tariffs on US grain imposed by China since early April will increase demand for Australian barley in late 2024/25 MY and in 2025/26 MY.

 

Australia's sorghum production in 2025/26 is expected to rise to 2.5 million tonnes, the fifth consecutive year above average. Sorghum exports are expected to increase by 9% from the previous season to 2.4 million tonnes.

 

At the same time, due to a shortage of water for irrigation, milled rice production in the 2025/26 MY will decrease by 39% compared to the previous season to 230 thousand tons, which will be 31% below the 10-year average.