In 2024/25 MR, the global supply of rapeseed will decrease, while imports will increase

In 2024/25 MY, world rapeseed prices will increase against the background of a reduction in the harvest in the main producer countries - Ukraine, Canada and Australia. Barva Invest experts told this at a meeting at the Trend&Hedge Club.

Dry weather in the EU at the time of sowing led to a reduction in the area sown. Then, during the flowering period, crops in Germany, France and Ukraine were damaged by frost. Therefore, the harvest in the EU will definitely be smaller than last year, the only question is by how much. In view of the reduction of its own harvest, the EU can increase the import of rapeseed, which will be useful to Ukraine.

In the new season, Canada will be able to harvest a good crop of canola and increase its supply to the world market, while the prospects for the Australian crop are still unclear, although according to forecasts, it will be smaller than last year. Therefore, in general, in 2024/25 MY, the world supply of rapeseed will decrease, and the need for imports will increase.

Rapeseed production in Ukraine will also decrease compared to the previous season, which will affect the volume of world supply. According to the USDA forecast, rapeseed processing will decrease from 1 million tons in FY 2023/24 to 0.4 million tons in FY 2024/25. The 2023/24 season was unusual for the Ukrainian market, as 0.5 million tons of rapeseed were processed in the first 3 months, while Ukraine usually exports 65% of its export potential during this period.

But in the new season, the situation may change, as the maritime corridor provided by the Armed Forces of Ukraine promotes export activation, which increases competition between rapeseed processors and exporters and will keep rapeseed prices at a high level.