In 2024/25 MY, India plans to harvest a record 115.43 million tons of wheat and 12.87 million tons of rapeseed and mustard

According to the forecast released yesterday by the Indian Ministry of Agriculture, the country will harvest a record 115.43 million tons of wheat in the 2024/25 MY, thanks to an expansion of the sowing area and favorable weather.

This will reduce wheat prices, the inflation rate of which increased from 6.02% in April 2024 to 8.8% in January 2025. Currently, the price is 30 thousand rupees/t, which is 24% higher than the minimum guaranteed price (24.25 thousand rupees/t). The reduction in prices will contribute to the resumption of wheat exports.

A good harvest will allow replenishment of wheat stocks, which as of February 1 were 16.1 million tons compared to the buffer requirement of 13.8 million tons as of January 1. The government is required to maintain a wheat buffer of 7.5 million tons each year as of April 1. In fiscal years 2024 and 2025, stocks were invested at 8.4 and 7.5 million tons, respectively, and in 2026 they could reach 10-11 million tons.

The government has not implemented its procurement program for several years as farmers try to sell their crops to private buyers at favorable prices. This limits the government’s influence on domestic prices. In fiscal year 2025, the government placed 3 million tons of wheat on the market, compared to nearly 10 million tons in open market sales in 2024. The high harvest will allow the government to purchase about 32 million tons of wheat in fiscal year 2026. In some provinces, the government is offering additional wheat premiums to increase procurement volumes.

According to the forecast of the Indian Ministry of Agriculture, the production of rapeseed and mustard will decrease compared to last year from 13.26 to 12.87 million tonnes due to the reduction in the area sown due to low prices in the previous season. At the same time, the production of chana (pea) will increase from 11.04 to 11.53 million tonnes.

Total food grain production will decrease from 332.3 to 331 million tons. The summer rice harvest will be 120.7 million tons, and corn - 24.6 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 2%.