In the 2023/24 Marketing Year, the European Union Reduced Wheat Exports and Increased Imports, but Sharply Reduced Corn Imports

According to data from the European Commission, from the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year until June 11, EU countries exported only 42.6 million tons of grain, which is 4% less compared to the same period of the previous season. Imports amounted to 31.5 million tons of grain, which is 19% less than in the same period last season, due to a sharp reduction in corn imports.

During this period, EU soft wheat exports totaled 28.76 million tons, which is 5% less than last year. Durum wheat exports increased by 2% to 733.7 thousand tons, barley exports decreased by 12% to 5.55 million tons, while corn exports increased by 12% to 3.62 million tons. It is worth noting that the USDA, in its June forecast, maintained the EU wheat export forecast at 37 million tons, which does not fully reflect the current export dynamics with a month left in the season.

Soft wheat imports into the EU increased by 4% to 9.09 million tons this season, and durum wheat imports increased by 30% to 2.41 million tons (the USDA estimated total imports at 13 million tons). This is due to a sharp increase in purchases from Russia due to the imposition of protective import duties on Russian grain for deliveries to the EU from July 1 and an increase in purchases of durum wheat from Russia. At the same time, barley purchases decreased by 8% to 1.83 million tons, and corn purchases decreased by 31% to 17.5 million tons. It is worth noting that the USDA also has a more optimistic estimate for corn imports at 21 million tons compared to 23.2 million tons in the previous season.

The key supplier of most of these crops to the EU this season remains Ukraine. In particular, Ukrainian soft wheat in the 2023/2024 marketing year accounted for 71% of all European imports (6.4 million tons), corn – 68% (12 million tons), and barley – 44% (0.8 million tons). The main supplier of durum wheat is Turkey – 0.7 million tons (30%) and Russia – 441.7 thousand tons. Russia also supplied 340.8 thousand tons of soft wheat, 312.1 thousand tons of corn, 182.9 thousand tons of rye, 59.1 thousand tons of barley, and 2.8 thousand tons of sorghum to the EU.

The increase in wheat consumption for feed in the 2023/24 season has led to a reduction in corn imports, but in the new season, the rise in wheat prices will lead to an increase in corn consumption for feed against the backdrop of a forecasted increase in corn production in the EU in the new season.