Turkey has already purchased 70% of the barley it needs to import, so competition for buyers will intensify in the second half of the season

In the 2025/26 MY, barley production in Turkey decreased compared to the previous season from 7 to 6.1 million tons, so its imports will increase, according to USDA estimates, from 0.15 to 1.3 million tons.

According to analysts, this season Turkey has already contracted 0.9 million tons of barley, mainly produced in the Russian Federation (which exceeds 50% of the market and significantly exceeds supplies from Ukraine, Romania and Germany).

In the first half of the 2025/26 MY, Russian barley supplies to Turkey increased compared to the corresponding period of the previous season from 0.2 to 0.5 million tons.

In the EU countries, barley production in the 2025/26 MY increased by 5.7 million tons compared to the previous season to 56 million tons, which was the largest harvest since the 2016/17 MY.

In the current season, Turkey has become one of the key destinations for Ukrainian barley, demonstrating an abnormal increase in demand against the background of a general decrease in the export rates of this crop. During July-November 2025, Turkey increased its purchases of Ukrainian barley compared to the same period of the previous season by 6.4 times from 36 to 233 thousand tons and took 2nd place among importers of Ukrainian barley with a share of 20% of the total volume of supplies.

China remained the main importer of Ukrainian barley with a share of 42%, but compared to the last season, supply volumes decreased by 31%.

In total, from July 1 to January 17, Ukraine exported 1.32 million tons of barley (compared to 2 million tons last year), so about 1.2-1.3 million tons remain available for export for the second half of the season.

Due to low supply in Ukrainian ports, export prices for barley remain high at 10,500-10,800 UAH/t or 214-220 $/t, but against the backdrop of a record barley harvest in Australia and the resumption of trade relations between China and Canada, Chinese importers will switch to purchasing barley from these countries, and demand for barley from Ukraine will fall. So in the second half of the season, the number of buyers of Ukrainian barley will decrease, so Ukrainian exporters need to fight as hard as possible for the Turkish market.