Turkey plans to increase wheat imports in the second half of the current season

Measures taken by the Turkish authorities to reduce excess wheat volumes have significantly reduced ending grain stocks, which may lead to increased wheat imports in the second half of the 2024/25 MY.

According to the forecast of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture, due to dry weather in most regions, wheat production in Turkey in the 2024/25 MY will decrease by 2 million tons compared to the previous season to 19 million tons, and ending stocks will decrease from 5.5 to 2.8 million tons.

The reduction in stocks was a result of the temporary suspension of wheat imports from June to October 2024 under the Inward Processing Arrangement (IPR), which forced local flour millers to purchase grain from the state agency TMO. Against this background, wheat imports in the first half of the season fell by more than 40%.

Turkey is expected to halve its wheat imports in the 2024/25 MY compared to the previous season, to 5.8 million tons, with Russia remaining the main supplier. After a partial resumption of imports in October, the country's authorities required that 85% of grain be purchased from TMO, but this norm was later reduced to 75%.

Wheat exports from Turkey also fell by 41% to 7 million tons due to the temporary suspension of the IPR regime, mandatory domestic purchases to access the restored IPR, and difficulties in restoring sales in African and Middle Eastern countries, particularly Iraq.

Traditionally, Turkey was the world's leading flour exporter, but its exports fell by 40% to 1.7 million tonnes (in wheat terms) from June to November 2024. Exports are expected to pick up in the near future, driven by the partial restoration of the IPR regime and increased supplies to Syria following the change in the political regime.