Turkey is trying to force Russia and Ukraine to stop attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea

After Turkish civilian vessels were attacked off the coast of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, Turkey moved from abstract talk of "concern" to direct statements that the spread of the war to civilian shipping poses a threat to navigation and food security, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan proposed that the Russian Federation and Ukraine establish a moratorium on attacks on vessels in the Black Sea.

While Turkey has not blocked the Black Sea and the Dardanelles for civilian vessels, the country's coast guard has begun to withhold permits for individual vessels, especially in the direction of Novorossiysk in Russia, while traffic to Turkish and Bulgarian ports has remained free. Formally, this can be considered additional checks, an assessment of security risks, or even just bureaucracy, but in big politics, an additional ten hours of waiting for permission sometimes means more than ten pages of a diplomatic communiqué, although so far the Turkish authorities have not provided any explanations regarding the restrictions for vessels heading to the Black Sea to the ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Turkey earns not only from transit in the Black Sea, but also from the re-export of Ukrainian and Russian agricultural products.

The country's flour milling industry operates mainly on imported wheat (and currently mainly on Russian wheat), while the oilseed industry buys crude sunflower oil from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, refines it, and sells it to third countries.

Recall that as a result of Russian strikes on commercial vessels and seaports in the Odessa region, which provided most of the grain exports, shipping in the Black Sea zone of Ukraine has virtually stopped since July 22. Large carriers began to limit the operation of their cargo ships in the Black Sea, and the cost of freight has increased several times.

Therefore, we expect Turkey to increase pressure on the Russian Federation and Ukraine to stop attacks on civilian shipping, which will help Erdogan once again consolidate the country's status as a state, without which no security system in the Black Sea simply works.