Traders concerned about the prospects of the new crop of barley
Experts USDA in the may balance sheet has increased the forecast of global barley production in 2018/19 MG in comparison with the previous season to 4.6 million tonnes to a 147.6 million tonnes, which corresponds to 2016/17 MG – 147 million tons.
Assessment of production increased due to expansion of acreage under barley on 1 million ha to 49.1 million hectares and increase in yield in major producing countries. In particular, the EU will increase the gross yield from 59.1 to 61.5 million tons, Canada – from 7.9 to 8 million tonnes, Australia from 8 to 9.8 million tonnes due to reduced yields and sown areas, Ukraine will reduce barley production from 8.7 to 7.5 million tonnes, Russia – from 19.8 to 18.5 million tons, Iraq's 24.5%, Syria by 35%.
As of may 21, in Ukraine winter barley sown 826 thousand ha (80% of the planned), and ardent – 1.5 million hectares (95% of the forecast). In Russia spring barley sown 5.7 million hectares (74.5% of the forecast), compared to 5.9 million hectares in 2017, the Gross harvest of barley is likely to be less predictable USDA, as the optimum sowing time has passed.
Drought in Australia sowing delays, which adversely affect the production of barley.
the Decrease in production has led to a jump in prices for barley in the current season, which from the beginning of spring rose to 210-215 $/t FOB, that exceeds the value of the wheat protein 12,5%, while feed wheat and corn traded at $200/t
Russia increased its exports of barley from the 2.76 million tonnes in 2016 to 4.8 million tonnes in 2017, and this season may increase it to 5.2-5.3 million tonnes, Ukraine has reduced exports from 4.9 million tons in 2016, to 4.2 million tonnes in 2017.
the price of barley of new crop are falling and now stand at about 180-185 $/t CPT-port, however, the probability of reduced production in Russia could significantly change the balance and prices in the new season.