Trump increases diplomatic pressure on Iran, blocking its exports, but oil prices rise

President Trump has again extended the truce with Iran, as there is no unified leadership in Iran, and the two branches of government (conditionally the IRGC "security forces" and the "diplomats"), which are in acute conflict and have diametrically opposed approaches to negotiations with the United States, need to agree on a common position. The negotiations scheduled for April 21 in Pakistan were effectively disrupted.

Currently, the US is in no hurry to resume active hostilities, but it is also not easing the naval and economic blockade of Iran, putting forward an ultimatum to sign an agreement with the condition that Iran renounce nuclear weapons.

June Brent crude futures rose 3.4% to $98.1/barrel for the week (+2.2% for the month). Prices remain elevated on concerns that renewed military action against Iran will further damage oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

Over the past day, US forces have seized four Iranian oil tankers, increasing tensions between the two sides. A fifth Iranian tanker remains blocked in India, unable to unload its sanctioned oil.

Such events disrupt the flow of Iranian oil to China, which should increase the political pressure of official China on Iran to conclude an agreement with the United States.

Despite Ukrainian drone attacks on the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk in late March, all of these ports have already resumed operations and are increasing oil exports, taking advantage of rising world prices and the Trump administration's decision to extend the exemption from sanctions on Russian oil loaded on tankers for another month.

During April 13-19, 24.74 million barrels of oil were loaded onto 33 tankers, the largest volume since March 22. The price of Urals rose to $98/barrel, and this is the seventh week of growth in a row.

As a result, despite Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports, the Kremlin's revenues from oil sales reached a nearly record $2.1 billion per week, which gives the Russian Federation additional funds to continue the war against Ukraine.