The trend of strengthening the hryvnia exchange rate will continue this week

Last week, the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia continued to decline on the interbank market under the pressure of a seasonal increase in foreign exchange earnings from exports of agricultural products, and on Friday fell to 26.64/26.66 UAH/..

The National Bank bought only.25.5 million of excess currency during the week, compared to 7 76.3 million a week ago and. 136 million two weeks ago.

The regulator adheres to its decision to reduce the planned volume of daily interventions on the interbank market from 2 20 million to.5 million. In total, since the beginning of the year, it has purchased.1.263 billion on the interbank market and sold. 169.5 million, so the balance of interventions amounted to. 1.09 billion.

It is expected that over the next few weeks, the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia will fall to UAH 26.5/. against the background of budget execution, export growth and low business activity, which does not allow increasing imports and reduces demand for foreign currency.

The main factor of pressure on the dollar exchange rate remains the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the export of grain and oilseeds. Over the past two weeks, prices for Ukrainian wheat have increased by 20-25%, which is 40-50% higher than the price level of August last year, while the wheat harvest in Ukraine will increase by 23-25% compared to the previous season.

Rapeseed prices are 50-60% higher than last year, which against the background of the same harvest volume will contribute to the growth of foreign exchange earnings, as producers are in a hurry to sell rapeseed before the start of sunflower harvesting.

Recall that the state budget for 2021 includes the average annual dollar exchange rate at the level of 29.1 UAH/., while the forecast rate at the end of 2021 is 28.8 UAH/..