Soybean exports are increasing at the end of the season in anticipation of the imposition of duties, and prices have risen due to reduced supply

Thanks to Ukraine's record soybean harvest in 2024, exports of soybeans and soybean meal in the 2024/25 MY will reach historically high values, and expectations of the introduction of a 10% duty on soybean exports from September are stimulating soybean export sales in July and August.

According to official statistics presented by the Agricultural Industry and Commerce Inform, in September-July 2024/25 MY, soybean exports from Ukraine reached 3.97 million tons, which exceeded the figure for the same period in 2023/24 MY by 28%, and has already renewed the historical maximum for the season.

Among the top buyers of Ukrainian soybeans in the current season, we can highlight Turkey (968.6 thousand tons; +39% compared to the previous season), Egypt (673 thousand tons; -31%) and the Netherlands (546 thousand tons; 2.7 times increase).

Exports of soybean meal from Ukraine in September-July 2024/25 MY increased by 77% compared to the same period last season to 1.22 million tons.

The key buyers of Ukrainian meal remain Poland (35% share) and Hungary (20%).

Export prices for soybeans in Ukraine increased by UAH 100/t to UAH 18,300-18,400/t or $388-390/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, but subject to quick delivery, as traders are completing their last export batches this season.

Export prices for soybean meal remain at $275-280/t with delivery to Black Sea ports and $300-310/t with delivery to the western border.

Demand prices for the new soybean crop are at $360-375/t with delivery to Black Sea ports and will remain under pressure from low world prices and the results of the soybean harvest in Ukraine, since despite the increase in sowing areas, the harvest will be lower than last year's due to less than favorable conditions at the start of the season.

Improved prospects for the US soybean harvest amid favorable conditions and uncertainty over exports to China continue to put pressure on stock quotes. Thus, November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1% to $361.9/tonne in the week (-3.6 for the month, -7.6% for the year).