Wheat export rates from Ukraine and the Russian Federation are falling, but the growth in stock market quotes has stopped

Aggressive Russian attacks on Odessa and Ukraine's Black Sea and Danube ports continue, so traders are redirecting export shipments by truck or rail to European ports or European consumers, but the pace of exports is falling sharply. At the same time, the growth of world wheat prices has stopped, despite the decrease in supplies.

Experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) have lowered the forecast for world wheat production in the 2026/27 MY by 4 million tons to 817 million tons, which should also support quotes.

During the week, September wheat futures rose:

• by 1% to $250.5/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.9% to $255.3/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 1% to €227.5/t or $265.4/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris.

At the same time, HRW durum wheat futures in Kansas City fell by 1% to $275.8/t.

From August 1 to 21, Ukraine exported only 340 thousand tons of wheat, which is 3.7 times lower than the corresponding figure last year, and in total, 1.41 million tons of wheat were exported in the 2026/27 MY, which is 44% lower than the pace of the previous season.

Wheat exports from the Russian Federation for 20 days of August amounted to 1 million tons, which is 2.6 times less than the corresponding figure last year, but from August 10 to 20, exports fell 4.6 times to 415.5 thousand tons, and deliveries are made from only 8 ports compared to 29 last year.

It would seem that against this background, demand for American wheat should increase, but its exports for the week of August 13-20 decreased by 17.2% to 425.7 thousand tons, which is 59% lower than the corresponding figure last year. In total, 4.34 million tons of wheat have been exported since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY (June 1), which is 26% lower than the pace of the previous season.

In physical markets, over the past week, prices for American wheat increased by $11/t to $270-280/t FOB, for French wheat by $3/t to $265/t, while Russian wheat offer prices decreased to $220/t FOB Novorossiysk due to shipowners' refusal to call at the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Domestic prices for food wheat in the Russian Federation fell by $6/t to $138-140/t during the week.

In Ukraine, during the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Danube ports decreased to 8,000-8,500 UAH/t or $160-170/t for food wheat and 7,500-8,000 UAH/t or $150-155/t for feed wheat due to increased shelling and a decrease in the number of buyers.

Demand prices for food wheat on the Ukrainian-Romanian border have increased to $150-152/t or UAH 8,000/t, with delivery to Galați (Romania) - up to $200-210/t and to Constanta - up to $235-237/t.

Processors maintain demand prices for food wheat at the level of 6,700-7,200 UAH/t with delivery to the mill and concentrate on purchasing quality wheat.

The start of spring wheat harvesting in the Russian Federation and a possible reduction in the forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in September, against the backdrop of the continued blockade of exports from Black Sea ports, may provide a new impetus to wheat prices on the world market.