Demand prices for corn in March-April may drop to $135-140/t
Corn prices are gradually declining throughout the supply chain. Buyers are offering $202/t CIF Italy and $203/t CIF Spain for it. Most avoid large deliveries, in particular panamax shipments of 50,000-60,000 tons, or ask for a discount of up to $3/t for such shipments compared to handsize deliveries of 25,000-30,000 tons, Spike Brokers reports.
In the ports of Ukraine, prices remain at the level of $144-148/t, subject to fast delivery within 1-2 weeks. In March - April, demand prices may fall to $135-140/t against the background of lower world prices and increased offers from competitors.
Buyers are offering €185-190/ton for the delivery of corn by ground transport to Italy in April-August.
Currently, indications of buyers are:
- DAP Odesa - $144-148/t,
- FCA Ukraine (border) - 125-130 €/t,
- DAP Italy (Mon.) -185-190 €/t,
- DAP Germany (Mon.) -188-190 €/t,
- FOB Odesa - $168-169/t,
- CIF Italy (port) -200-202 $/t,
- CIF Spain (port) - $200-203/t,
- CIF Turkey (port) - $193-196/t.
USDA experts estimate the corn harvest in Ukraine at 30.5 million tons, exports at 23 million tons (+2 million tons), final stocks at 5.32 million tons (-1.5 million tons). In FY 2023/24, Ukraine exported 13.6 million tons of corn, therefore, in order to reach the USDA forecasted indicators, it must ship about 2.4 million tons of grain every month.
