Prices for new crop grain in Ukraine have equaled prices for the old crop, and for corn they even exceeded them — analysts

The Ukrainian grain market is experiencing unusual price dynamics: prices for the new crop are equal to those for the old crop, and for corn they even exceed them, despite forecasts of significant production and sufficient stocks, writes Fastmarkets.

Ukrainian wheat 11.5% with delivery in April-May is offered at $236/t FOB by the ports of Pivdennyi–Odesa–Chornomorsk (POC), and new harvest wheat with delivery in August is offered at $234/t FOB, i.e. the difference is only $2/t. In March 2025, old harvest wheat was offered at $247/t, and new harvest wheat was offered at $240/t.

Feed wheat for delivery in April is offered at $230/t FOB POC ($236/t last year), and new crop wheat for delivery in August is offered at $226-228/t ($223/t last year).

Corn for delivery in April-May is offered at $226-227/t FOB, while the new crop for delivery in November is offered at $230/t FOB.

On the domestic market, the asking price for new crop corn for November-December delivery is $209-210/t DAP POC, and deals were concluded at $212/t DAP. Old crop corn is trading at $215-216/t, leaving a narrow spread between spot and forward deliveries.

Analysts note that last March, corn for delivery in April-May was offered at $241/t FOB, and the new crop for delivery in November was offered at $225/t, while on the domestic market, prices for the old and new crops were $231 and $207/t, respectively.

At the same time, prices for new crop barley have not yet been established, given the difficult experience of last year, when prices rose throughout the season amid a supply shortage.

Such prices for Ukrainian grain appear fair compared to the Euronext exchange or price levels for wheat and corn in the EU's Black Sea region.

Currently, on MATIF [Euronext], May contracts are trading at €207/t, September at €213.5/t, and December at €221.75/t. At the same time, wheat 11.5% of the new harvest with shipment from Constanta-Varna-Burgas was offered at a discount of €2-4/t ($2.3-4.6/t) to the September Euronext contract, which is equivalent to approximately $241-243/t FOB.

Traders note that there is no difference between the prices of new and old crops for both wheat and corn. This indicates that the market is not building in the usual discount for carryover and harvest pressure, and instead both old and new crops face the same risk conditions.

While FOB prices for new crop corn are supported by constant war risks, prices on a DAP basis are supported by logistical cost issues and uncertainty about fuel prices.