Barley prices rise amid lower global production forecast for my 2021/22

Purchase prices for barley in Ukraine received support from the data of the August USDA report and continue to grow following the rapid rise in prices for Black Sea wheat.

In the August report, USDA experts lowered the forecast of global barley production in 2021/22 MG by 4 million tons to 149.43 million tons, which will be 10.84 million tons lower than the 160.27 million tons collected in 2020/21 mg compared to July estimates.

The forecast for barley production was lowered for Canada by 2.5 million tons to 8.8 million tons (10.74 million tons in 2020), Kazakhstan – by 1.2 million tons to 2.5 million tons (3.66 million tons in 2020), Turkey – by 1.2 million tons to 5 million tons (8.1 million tons in 2020), the EU – by 0.4 million tons to 54.4 million tons (55.49 million tons) and Russia – by 0.4 million tons to 19 million tons (20.63 million tons), but increased for Ukraine by 0.8 million tons to 10 million tons (7.95 million tons), Australia – by 0.5 million tons to 11 million tons (13 million tons) and Morocco – by 0.38 million tons to 2.78 million tons (0.64 million tons).

The forecast for barley imports to China was lowered by 1 million tons to 9.6 million tons (10.3 million tons in 2020) due to a sharp decline in exports from Canada, and for Iran by 0.4 million tons to 2 million tons (2.5 million tons).

In Ukraine, as of August 12, 9.423 million tons of barley were threshed from 2.3 million hectares or 92% of the area with a yield of 4.16 t/ha (3.54 t/ha in 2020), which confirms the harvest forecasts at the level of 10.5-10.8 million tons.

Purchase prices for barley in the ports of Ukraine for the week increased by another 1 15-20/ton to 2 240-245/ton or 7300-7400 UAH/ton, following the prices of wheat, which for the week rose by 2 25-35/ton to 2 260-270/ton or 8300-8450 UAH/ton.

Problems with the spring barley harvest in Russia and Canada will soon increase interest in Ukrainian barley, especially from China.