Barley prices in Ukraine accelerated growth amid a sharp rise in the price of wheat and corn
Global wheat and corn prices are rising amid the heat wave and a possible decline in production in the United States, which supports the barley market, which at the beginning of the season fell sharply in price on forecasts of a good harvest in Ukraine and Russia.
Against the background of lower forecasts for the wheat harvest in the United States and Russia, as well as delays in harvesting due to precipitation and restraining sales by producers, wheat prices increased by 1 15-20/ton, and forward prices for Ukrainian corn – by 1 10-15/ton.
Following them, purchase prices for barley in the ports of Ukraine, which since the beginning of July have decreased from 2 225-230/ton or 7000 UAH/ton to 1 190-195/ton or 5950-6050 UAH/ton, over the past week have increased by 1 10-15/ton to 2 200-205/ton or 6200-6300 UAH/ton, whereas a year ago during this period they were 1 165-170/ton.
The barley harvest in Ukraine is projected at 9-12 million tons due to high yields in the range of 4.5 t/ha, and exports are estimated at 5-7 million tons. this discrepancy significantly complicates pricing.
As of July 15, 2.9 million tons of winter barley with a yield of 4.29 t/ha (3.54 t/ha as of 16.07.20) were harvested in Ukraine from 685 thousand hectares or 28% of the area. But it should be borne in mind that the average yield of spring barley is usually lower than that of winter barley.
According to the state migration service, in the 2021/22 season, as of July 21, Ukraine exported 301 thousand tons of barley, which corresponds to last year's pace.
In Russia, as of July 21, 4.8 million tons of barley were threshed from 1.4 million hectares or 18% of the area with a yield of 3.48 t/ha (3.29 t/ha in 2020). The area of barley sowing compared to last year decreased by 6% to 7.9 million hectares, and the heat worsens yields in the southern regions and the Volga region, which will lead to a reduction in barley production in Russia and allow Ukraine to become the leader in exports in the current season.
In 2020, Russia Harvested the largest barley crop in the last 10 years – 20.9 million tons, of which it exported 6.4 million tons, while Ukraine harvested 8 million tons and exported 4.2 million tons of barley.