Ukrainian corn prices fall: global tenders signal further pressure on the market

Corn prices in Ukraine remain under strong pressure and show a further decline. The current week brought another drop in export demand prices by $2–3/t — to $222–225/t (10,400–10,600 UAH/t) with delivery to the port by the end of June. Despite this, farmers are in no hurry to sell off the leftovers, hoping for a market recovery. Meanwhile, prices for new crop corn for delivery in October have already dropped to $195–196/t .

The pick-up in Asian purchases suggests a strong appetite for cheap corn, with importers seeking deals amid concerns about possible price increases if trade talks between the US and China progress, as well as potential freight costs.

Thus, on June 11, Taiwanese company MFIG purchased 65 thousand tons of Brazilian corn for $236.5/ton C&F for delivery in August-September. The offers also included consignments of American and Argentine corn at $241-243/ton C&F.

On June 10, South Korean feed producer NOFI purchased 204,000 tons at $234.59/ton C&F with a premium for unloading, and KFA purchased another 65,000 tons at $234.95/ton C&F .

These tenders demonstrate that to remain competitive in the Asian market, Ukrainian new crop corn must cost less than $190/t delivered to port . Given the limited access to the EU market, this creates risks for Ukrainian exporters.

Adding to the pressure on prices is the expected build-up in global corn inventories. According to the USDA’s June forecast, global production will increase in 2024/25 and 2025/26, with Brazil’s crop expected to increase by 1.8 million tonnes to 131.8 million tonnes. This could further weaken the market in the coming weeks.

Situation in Ukraine