Soybean prices remain under pressure from forecasts of increased production in South America
Global soybean prices are under pressure from increased supply of new crops, especially from the United States (which is the Second World exporter after Brazil), as well as low surveys from China and forecasts of an increase in the soybean crop in South America.
According to Oil World estimates, compared to the previous season, global soybean production in my 2021/22 will grow from 359.55 to 376.45 million tons, and reserves – from 95.7 to 99.3 million tons.
Oil world experts believe that compared to last year, soybean production in South America in 2021/22 MG will increase by 12 million tons to 207.3 million tons, in particular in Brazil – by 7.3 million tons to 144.5 million tons (due to an increase in sowing areas by 3.8%), Argentina – by 2.2-3.2 million tons to 46-47 million tons, Paraguay – by 1.4 million tons to 10.7 million tons, Uruguay – by 0.5 million tons to 2.56 million tons.
At the same time, analysts expect that soybean production in China will decrease by 2.5 million tons to 15.6 million tons, although USDA experts in September estimated it at 19 million tons.
Export sales of soybeans from the United States in my 2021/22 amounted to 22.29 million tons, which is 45% lower than the corresponding indicator last year. In general, since September 1, only 258 thousand tons have been exported. the lack of purchases of soybeans by China remains the main reason for the decline in soybean prices.
November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange recovered to 4 467.75/ton after the collapse on Monday yesterday, down 1.6% over the month and remaining 2.2% cheaper than a year ago.
Dry and warm weather in the United States in the next two weeks will allow us to step up soybean harvesting.
In the southern regions of Brazil, it is raining, which improves the condition of winter wheat, corn and soybeans. In the near future, precipitation will pass in the central regions, which are the main producers of soybeans and have already started sowing them in anticipation of the rainy season.
In Ukraine, despite the decline in world prices, purchase prices for soybeans are growing following the prices of rapeseed and sunflower. Delayed harvesting due to late ripening and rain forces buyers to raise prices to attract the right volumes.
For soybeans with GMOs, exporters offer 5 530-540/ton or UAH 16,000-16,200/ton in the port, while processors are willing to pay UAH 15,700-16,200/ton with delivery to the plant.
For non – GMO soybeans, prices in the port increased by 2 20-30/ton to 6 640-650/ton or UAH 19200-19500/ton, and for DAP border with Poland or Belarus-to 6 650-655/ton.
Lower prices for soybean oil and meal in the US and EU will increase pressure on soybean prices in the near future, especially in the event of increased precipitation in Brazil.