Soybean prices remain under pressure from improved crop forecasts in the US and Brazil

Harvesting soybeans in the United States and sowing them in South America are increasingly putting pressure on prices, especially given the low demand for American soybeans from China.

In the United States, as of October 31, soybeans were harvested at 79%, up from 86% last year and 81% on average over 5 years. Last week's rains somewhat delayed harvesting, but the dry and warm weather expected in the coming days will speed up work.

Experts are raising forecasts for the US soybean harvest in my 2021/22, and barchart recently increased its estimate by 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons higher than the USDA's October forecast due to an increase in average yields.

November soybean futures on the US stock exchange rose 0.5% to 4 457/ton yesterday, although in just three months they fell by 6.7%, while soybean oil prices remained at.1,350/ton during this period.

The volume of soybean processing in the United States in September decreased by 2.3% compared to August to 4.46 million tons, which is lower than 4.65 million tons in September 2020.

Weekly soybean exports from the United States increased to 2.272 million tons, of which 1.432 million tons were shipped to China. Total exports since the beginning of the season amounted to 10.864 million tons, while last year on the same date it reached 17.17 million tons.

Pressure on soybean prices is reinforced by favorable weather for sowing in Brazil with heavy rains in October and precipitation forecasts for November. According to the agency AgRural, as of October 28, 52% of the planned areas were sown with soybeans for the 2021/22 harvest in the country, which is 10% ahead of last year's pace and is the second fastest sowing historical indicator. 63% of the first crop was sown with corn, compared to 54% last year.

In Argentina, a lack of precipitation delays sowing. According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, as of October 28, 12% of the planned 16.2 million hectares were sown with soybeans, which is 4% lower than last year's pace and is the lowest figure in the last 15 years. This week, it will rain in the soybean growing regions, which will accelerate the pace of sowing.

In Ukraine, exporters keep prices for soybeans with GMOs in ports at the level of 5 505-510/ton or 14900-15000 UAH/ton, so processors lowered their prices to 16000-16500 UAH/ton with delivery to the plant. Prices for non-GMO soybeans fell to 6 650-680/ton or UAH 19500-20300/ton with delivery to the port or border against the background of an increase in offers.