Prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine are rising amid limited supply and have almost reached the price level of non-GMO soybeans

In Ukraine, there is a strong competition for soybeans between exporters and processors, which leads to further price increases. Frosts and snowfalls in December and January limited deliveries to ports, so exporters increased export prices for GMO soybeans to $435-440/t or 19,400-19,600 UAH/t, which almost corresponds to the demand price level for non-GMO soybeans of $440-445/t or 19,500-20,000 UAH/t.

The sharp increase in sunflower prices prompted some processors to significantly increase their purchases of soybeans and switch to using soybean meal in their recipes.

During the week, processors increased purchase prices for GMO soybeans by another 300-500 UAH/t to 19,000-20,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory, but left prices for non-GMO soybeans at 19,500-20,000 UAH/t, as EU buyers are not willing to pay a high price amid the increased supply of cheap meal from South America.

During February 1-11, Ukraine exported about 90,000 tons of soybeans, of which 51,000 tons went to Turkey, which remains the main sales market. However, it may happen that cheap Brazilian soybeans will displace Ukrainian soybeans on the Turkish market, as American soybeans did in Egypt .

Soybean exports from Brazil in January amounted to 1.9 million tons of soybeans (1.1 million tons in January 2025), and in February, according to estimates by the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), they could reach 11.42–11.71 million tons, which would significantly exceed the 9.7 million tons exported in February 2025.

According to AgRural, in Brazil, as of February 12, soybeans have been harvested on 21% of the area (24% last year), as persistent rainfall is delaying the harvest, although half of the crop has already been harvested in the central state of Mato Grosso.

March futures for US soybeans in Chicago rose only 0.9% to $416.7/t (+7.6% month-on-month), failing to respond to the record growth in processing in January.

According to the monthly report of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), in January, soybean processing in the United States decreased by 1.5% compared to December to 6.03 million tons, which was a record for the first month and exceeded the figure of January 2025 by 10.6%.

U.S. soybean processing volumes have increased in recent years as processors have built new plants and upgraded existing ones to meet increasing demand for oil from biofuel producers. At the same time, soybean oil inventories at NOPA member mills rose to their highest level since April 2023 at 862.6 thousand tons as of January 31, up 15.7% from December and 49.1% from January 2026.

The USDA Ag Outlook Forum, to be held on February 19-20, is expected to release the first U.S. crop area forecasts, which will affect the soybean and corn markets. According to the median analyst estimate, soybean acreage will increase by 3.8 million acres from last year to 85 million acres, and the yield will increase by 4.6 million tons to 120.5 million tons.