Prices for soybeans rose despite bearish USDA forecast

2018-12-12 14:25:21
Machine translation
Prices for soybeans rose despite bearish USDA forecast

In the December world balance of supply and demand of soybeans from the USDA has increased forecasts starting and ending stocks at 1.6 and 3.2 million tons respectively, as well as the forecast of world soybean production by 1.7 million tonnes to 369,2 million tons. while the forecast of consumption remained at the same level.

 

the Main headlines in the report were Brazil, the balance of which were major changes that affected the global balance of soy in 2018/19МГ.

beginning stocks of soybeans in Brazil to 2018/19МГ was increased 1.6 million tons to 25,15 million tonnes due to the increase of data regarding the soybean crop in 2017/18МГ 0.5 million tons to 120,3 million tons.

 

Also, the forecast has been increased soybean production in Brazil in the new 2018/19МГ 1.5 million tons to 122млн tone thanks to the wonderful weather during planting. The increased supply helped to increase the export forecast for soybean in the 2018/19 season from Brazil by 4 million tons to 81млн tons. Brazilian research agencies continue to increase the production forecast of the Brazilian soybean in the 2018/19 season, but their predictions have lagged behind the USDA's estimate as the Brazilian oilseed processors Association (ABIOVE) estimates the soybean crop at the level of 120,9 million tons and exports 82.7 million tons, while Brazil's State Agency Conab supply increased the crop forecast to 120.1 million T.

 

 

For Argentina experts, the USDA lowered the forecast of soybean exports for the season from 8 to 5 million tons and increased ending stocks from 38 to 41.3 million tons, which was the reason for the increase in global ending stocks in the balance sheet.

 

the Decline in exports from Argentina will be given an increase in competition from Brazil, especially in the case of the opening of China market for U.S. soybeans.

 

the report left unchanged the balance sheet of soybean for the United States and China, remains uncertain as the issue of resumption of deliveries of U.S. soybeans to China, despite the cheerful tweets of the President of trump on the significant progress made in the negotiations with China.

 

soybean Futures in Chicago rose yesterday by 0.4% to 342,6$/t, in spite of the bearish USDA forecast, as more information about the upcoming confirmation of purchase two Chinese state companies 5 million tons of U.S. soybeans.

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