Soybean prices in Ukraine remain high and are supported by rising Chicago quotes

Soybeans remain the most popular crop in Ukraine due to high demand from exporters and processors who are replacing expensive sunflower meal with soybean meal in feed formulations.

Rain-induced delays in soybean harvests in Brazil are also supporting Chicago prices, which could soon lead to lower demand for American soybeans from China.

In Ukrainian ports, export demand prices for GMO soybeans remained at $435-440/t or UAH 19,400-19,600/t during the week, while prices for non-GMO soybeans increased by $5-10/t to $450-458/t or UAH 20,000-20,500/t. Processors increased purchase prices for non-GMO soybeans by UAH 300-500/t to UAH 20,000-20,500/t, but left prices for GMO soybeans at UAH 19,000-20,000/t with delivery to the factory.

Despite this, the offer from producers remains low, although it is worth remembering that a year ago, prices for GMO soybeans were $385-388/t (18,000–18,200 UAH/t), and for non-GMO soybeans - $420-425/t (19,800–20,200 UAH/t) in ports, while processors offered 17,500-18,000 UAH/t for GMO soybeans , and 19,000-19,200 UAH/t for non-GMO soybeans.

March futures for US soybeans in Chicago rose 0.4% to $418.9/t (+7.2% month-on-month, +7.5% year-on-year) on the back of increased domestic processing. But the US Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's import tariffs were illegal is making strong adjustments to trade policies and agreements, and analysts predict that China will abandon active purchases of US soybeans, especially against the backdrop of cheap supplies from Brazil.

According to Conab, in Brazil, soybeans have been harvested on 32.3% of the area as of February 21 (36.4% last year and 36.6% on average over the past 5 years), as persistent rains delay the harvest. But a decrease in rainfall intensity this week and next will accelerate the harvest.

From September 1 to February 19, the United States exported 25 million tons of soybeans out of the 42.8 million tons projected for the 2025/26 MY. This is another 32% below the pace of the previous season, in which exports amounted to 51 million tons.

USDA experts predict that in 2026, soybean acreage in the US will increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres compared to the previous year, and production will increase by 5.1 million tons to 121.1 million tons, which will also increase the pressure on quotes in the near future.

The quote also supports the protestors’ seizure and blockade of a key Brazilian export port in Paraná, owned by Cargill. The incident came against the backdrop of protests by 14 indigenous tribes against the public bidding for dredging work in the Tapajós River and a decree by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva that paves the way for the privatization of the management of three rivers, totaling about 4,000 km (2,500 miles).