Soy prices in Ukraine continue to rise amid farmers holding back sales

Global soybean prices remained stable over the past week and have not yet reacted to the lack of rainfall in the main soybean-growing region in Brazil and delays in the planting campaign. Meanwhile, soybean export prices in Ukraine continue to rise due to low supply.

 

As of September 19, 49% or 1.293 million hectares (out of 2.6 million hectares) have been harvested in Ukraine, yielding 2.64 million tons with an average yield of 2.04 t/ha compared to 2.43 t/ha last year.

 

Export purchase prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine rose by another $5/t over the week to $380-385/t or UAH 17,700-17,800/t delivered to Black Sea ports, while processors raised their prices by UAH 300-500/t to UAH 16,700-17,500/t delivered to the plant.

 

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans rose more actively, increasing by $10-15/t over the week to $435-445/t or UAH 20,800-21,000/t delivered to Black Sea ports, while processors raised prices by UAH 500-700/t to UAH 20,700-21,200/t delivered to the plant.

Prices for non-GMO soybeans delivered DAP Hungary also increased by €5-10/t to €430-440/t, and DAP Italy prices rose to €450/t.

 

November soybean futures in Chicago remained at $373/t for the week (+4% for the month) amid unfavorable weather for the start of the planting campaign in Brazil. However, further growth is limited by favorable conditions for the U.S. harvest, which provides good yield forecasts in the country.

 

As of September 15, 6% of soybean fields in the U.S. had been harvested compared to an average of 3% over the past five years, and the weather remains warm and dry enough to accelerate harvesting in the coming weeks.

 

According to the forecast from the Brazilian agency AgRural, soybean planting areas in the country will increase by 0.9% in 2024/25 MY compared to the previous season, reaching 114.66 million acres or 46.4 million hectares (USDA estimates them at 116.9 million acres or 47.3 million hectares), with total production projected at 168 million tons.

 

Dry weather with temperatures of 35-38 °C continues in central Brazil, preventing the start of the planting campaign. However, the Brazilian National Statistical Agency, Conab, released its first forecast for the soybean crop in 2024/25 at 166.28 million tons, which is 12.8% higher than last season but lower than the USDA's September forecast of 169 million tons.