Soybean prices in Ukraine continue to rise, but Chicago quotes have already stabilized under pressure from harvest in Brazil

Competition between soybean processors and exporters in Ukraine is intensifying, so prices continue to rise, supported by rising stock market quotes.

During the week, export demand prices for GMO soybeans in Ukrainian ports increased by $5/t to $440-445/t or UAH 19,400-19,800/t, and for non-GMO soybeans - by $5/t to $455-460/t or UAH 20,000-20,500/t.

Farmers continue to refuse export contracts in favor of sales for hryvnia due to the complexity of export registration (CCI conclusions, payment of a guaranteed duty contribution to the customs account for export), especially against the backdrop of price increases from processors who prefer to process soybeans rather than sunflowers.

Soybean exports from Ukraine in February decreased compared to January from 222 to 219 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the season amounted to 1.35 million tons. At the same time, domestic processing of soybeans in Ukraine is estimated at 2.5-3 million tons, so about 0.5-0.6 million tons of soybeans remain free for export.

During the week, processors increased purchase prices for GMO soybeans by UAH 300-500/t to UAH 19,500-20,500/t, and for non-GMO soybeans by UAH 200/t to UAH 20,000-20,700/t with delivery to the factory, which is equivalent to $410-415/t excluding VAT and corresponds to currency contract prices of $430-440/t with delivery to ports.

March futures for US soybeans in Chicago rose another 0.9% to $422.5/t (+5.5% month-on-month), supported by rising domestic soybean oil prices to their highest level since mid-2023.

Soybean processing in the US in January exceeded analysts' forecasts and amounted to 6.2 million tons, which is 0.9% lower than the December figure and 87.2% higher than the January 2025 figure. Soybean oil stocks in the US increased by 11.7% to 1.1 million tons during January, which was 34% higher than the January 2025 figure and did not confirm increased demand from biodiesel producers, but at the same time, soybean oil prices in the US are much higher than in China and Argentina.

Soybean exports from the United States for February 20-27 increased by 67% compared to the previous week to 1.14 million tons (of which to China - up to 735 thousand tons), but in total for the season amounted to 26.18 million tons, which is 30% lower than last year's pace.

According to AgRural, due to prolonged rains, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on only 39% of the planned area (50% last year), so the agency has lowered its forecast for soybean production in the country by 3 million tons to 178 million tons, which will support markets until the harvest is complete.