Soybean prices in Ukraine continue to fall, but they can be supported by an increase in global quotations

For the third week in a row, export purchase prices for soybeans in Ukraine have fallen, which allows processors to lower prices, which increased their purchases of soybeans and sunflowers during this period.

During the week, the prices of soybeans with GMOs decreased by 300-500 UAH/t to 17,000-17,500 UAH/t or $360-375/t, and for soybeans without GMOs - to 19,000-19,500 UAH/t or $410-425 /t. Increasing competition from Brazil and the USA forces traders to lower prices for Ukrainian soybeans.

Against the background of a decrease in export demand, processors lowered prices for soybeans with GMOs by 500-700 UAH/t to 17,000-17,200 UAH/t with delivery to the factory, while demand for soybeans without GMOs remains limited.

In 2024/25, Ukraine exported 1.15 million tons of soybeans (3.26 million tons for this period last year) out of the forecasted 4 million tons, in particular, 230,000 tons in November.

According to the European Commission, in July to October, the EU imported 4 million tons of soybeans, which corresponds to last year's pace. Compared to the previous season, the share of Brazil in EU imports increased from 1.7 million tons to 2.333 million tons or 57.9%, and the share of the USA decreased by 516 thousand tons to 1.247 million tons or 31%.

According to AgRural data, 80% of the planned area was sown with soybeans in Brazil as of November 14 (68% last year), which contributes to the expansion of the sowing area and improves the prospects for the future harvest.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 2.2% to $371/t in two sessions (-1.3% for the week, +2% for the month) on the back of record US soybean processing, which in October amounted to 5.44 million tons compared to analysts' forecast of 5.35 million tons.

Exports of soybeans from the USA for the week fell by 8.4% to 2.165 million tons (of which 1.39 million tons were delivered to China), and in general for the season reached 17.48 million tons, which is 9.2% ahead of last year's pace .

China will ramp up imports of U.S. soybeans before Trump's inauguration, then may sharply cut purchases, weighing on Chicago prices in the new year.