Soybean prices in Ukraine continue to fall

Declining export demand for soybeans in Ukraine and for soybean meal and soybean oil in the EU continues to put pressure on processors' prices in the domestic Ukrainian market. In addition, plants are switching to processing rapeseed, so demand for soybeans is forecast to fall.

 

During the week, Ukrainian processors reduced purchase prices for GMO soybeans from 22,000 UAH/t to 20,000–21,000 UAH/t or $393–415/t excluding VAT with delivery to the factory, so since the beginning of June, prices have already dropped by 2,000 UAH/t.

 

Prices for non-GMO soybeans have dropped to UAH 22,000/t delivered to the factory, but the shortage of supply amid subdued export demand is keeping prices from falling further.

 

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans delivered to Ukrainian ports remain at $450/t, and delivered to the western border at $450-455/t.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian soybean meal with GMOs for delivery to the western border fell by $20-25/t to $385-390/t in a month.

 

The fall in oil prices has led to a collapse in soybean oil quotes in Chicago, which, in turn, is increasing pressure on soybean prices, including in South America.

 

Over the week, July soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by 5.5%, but July soybean futures remained unchanged and are trading at $410/t (-6.5% per month), so we expect increased pressure on quotes, given the increase in soybean planting areas in the US and favorable weather conditions.

 

In Ukraine, weather conditions also remain favorable for crop development, although hot weather and limited precipitation in the west reduce the harvest potential in the new season.