Soy prices in Ukraine are beginning to gradually increase due to declining yield forecasts, but futures prices on global exchanges continue to fall

In Ukraine, the intensifying drought is negatively affecting the potential yields of soybeans, sunflower, and corn, as well as complicating the timely sowing of winter rapeseed. Despite this, global market prices remain relatively stable.

The soybean harvest forecast in Ukraine is being revised downward. According to ASAP Agri, the harvest could be around 5.7 million tons, compared to the USDA's forecast of 7.3 million tons. However, some experts believe the harvest could drop below 5 million tons due to a significant reduction in yields in the eastern and central regions of the country.

According to official statistics, Ukraine planted 2.63 million hectares of soybeans in 2024 (USDA estimates 2.9 million hectares), compared to 1.8 million hectares in 2023. However, in 2023, soybean yields were at 2.6 tons per hectare, with a total harvest of around 4.7 million tons.

Export purchase prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine have risen by $5-10 per ton this week, reaching $370-375 per ton with delivery to Black Sea ports. However, traders are still struggling to find enough buyers for Ukrainian soybeans due to the increasing supply of South American soybeans and expectations of a record soybean harvest in the United States.

Prices for non-GMO soybeans have also increased to $400-410 per ton with delivery to ports, but farmers are hesitant to sell due to uncertainty about the harvest.

Processors are offering 16,500-17,000 UAH per ton for GMO soybeans with delivery to the plant, but the sharp rise in sunflower prices to 19,000-20,000 UAH per ton, as well as high rapeseed prices around 22,000-22,500 UAH per ton with delivery to the port, could push prices higher, especially if processors start competing for processing volumes this season due to the reduced sunflower harvest.

November soybean futures in Chicago fell by 2.1% to $353.3 per ton (-11.7% for the month) following the results of the ProFarmer crop tour, which indicates that soybean yields may be higher than USDA forecasts.

On the third day of the annual crop tour, ProFarmer experts visited Illinois, where they noted that the number of soybean pods (in a 3x3 foot square) was 1,419.11, significantly higher than last year's count of 1,270.61 and the three-year average of 1,266.70.