Soybean prices in Ukraine are falling against the background of a decrease in export demand

Increased rainfall and improved soybean planting conditions in Brazil are expected to add pressure on global quotes, which were unable to support even a sharp decline in the U.S. soybean crop forecast. The increase in soybean supplies from South America to the EU and Pakistan's permission to import soybeans with GMOs collapsed the demand for soybeans in Ukraine.

According to Conab data, in Brazil on November 10, 66% of the planned area was sown with soybeans (57.3% last year), and favorable rainfall improves the conditions for the development of crops. The optimal sowing dates have not yet ended, so the sowing area may increase, which will allow a record 169 million tons of soybeans to be obtained in 2024/25 MR.

In October, Brazil reduced soybean exports compared to September from 6.1 to 4.71 million tons, which is 15.9% less than the 5.6 million tons exported in October 2023. At the same time, soybean meal exports increased to 2.3 million tons (up 24.4% from October 2023), which was the highest October figure and the third highest monthly figure since 1997.

Argentina is also starting to plant soybeans, and recent rains have created favorable planting conditions.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 1.2% to $371/t yesterday, losing 2% after the release of a "bullish" USDA report, which cut the forecast for the US soybean crop from 124.7 million to 121.4 million t.

Markets remain under pressure from weak demand from China and its possible withdrawal from buying US soybeans if Trump resumes a trade war.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for soybeans with GMOs in ports decreased during the week by 200-300 UAH/t to 18,000-18,200 UAH/t or $370-385/t due to a decrease in companies buying soybeans. This allowed processors to lower prices by 200-300 UAH/t to 17,700-18,000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

The market is already overstocked with soybean meal, so factories will reduce the volume of soybean processing, especially in view of the increase in sunflower offers from farmers against the background of price increases.

Export purchase prices for soybeans without GMOs in Black Sea ports fell by 20-30% to $405-430/t or UAH 19,000-20,000/t (although at the beginning of the season the premium for this soybean reached $65-80/t), but processors refrain from purchases in anticipation of further price reductions.

Pakistani authorities have allowed the import of GMO soybeans from the US, bypassing mandatory risk assessments required by the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety. The National Biosafety Committee (NBC) has issued licenses to 42 importers to import food, feed and processing soybeans, which contain 47 genetic elements.

This decision caused demand prices for GMO-free soybeans in Ukraine to fall by $30-40/t, so now we can only hope for a recovery in demand from China, which also pays a premium for GMO-free soybeans.